False Favourites (September 2010)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog, Systems & Strategies | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

My golden rule for a horseracing system is that it should be able to be written as a rule that is unambiguous and straightforward to apply. The system should also generate an acceptable success rate and return a profit. It should be able to reproduce its good historical performance in future races.

A system should only be considered if it had a sound structure and was easy to implement. It should not require deciphering or an interpretation of masses of data! Whilst readily accepting the difficulty of finding such a system my primary instincts are to look for feed, sort and selection within the above components!

It is true that static based rule systems that attempt to standardise and quantify racing factors within different codes of racing cannot work. Horse racing is three different sports - Flat Turf, National Hunt and AW so three different approaches are required and a ONE SIZE FITS all solution to betting does not exist!

False Favourites, written by Jonathan Burgess, is an excellent guide on laying horses to lose but it is not a system that finds selections for you. When I put this point to JB this was his exact response:

Correct. This not a tipping service but 2 lay methods – one for the Flat and one for the Jumps. As explained before there is also plenty of educational material as well. After all, most punters fail with systems because they do not know what to do when things are not going to plan and lack of understanding of personal emotion, which often is the downfall of many. FF has been developed to be a racing education manual with two proven betting systems included.

What both systems/methodologies actually do is – inform each user and then place them in the exact area of racing where favourites have a very limited chance of winning their respective races. This is born out by years of statistics, which clearly indicate a profit can be made by being selective.

Furthermore FF is now in its second edition. I am always looking to improve on what has already been developed and software will be entering the equation at some point in the future. The core aim as always is to help and educate each bettor into taking a safe realistic approach to making a secondary or potentially primary income.

FF is open to interpretation and it is the new purchaser that must decipher what selections meet the criteria given and here lies the ambiguity. Consequently there is no historical data to check (one of the prime prerequisites for proofing a system). For example, the FF rules states that the lay price must fall within a bandwidth but late fluctuations may take the selection in or out of it. This would mean spending the day close to a computer with an infinite amount of time. I asked JB if this was a fair analysis:

Yes and no really. This is partly why I do not offer tips. I use the system along with the Race-Specialist, but I don't have a pre-set time to lay. Sometimes if I can get much lower odds I will lay early morning and trade at the off if the horses have drifted giving me a hedged bet. Other times before the off and also in-play plays a big role especially with the Race-Specialist method. Inherently we all have to be on the lookout for non-runners and drifters etc. There is a guide including within the main FF manual titled - Drifting Favourites, which explains how to best implement aforementioned bet execution approaches.

As you know that's the nature of racing - being fully aware of the facts does not necessarily mean you will be more profitable, BUT IT DOES mean system users will learn a lot about the key elements of successful betting, e.g. value, correct staking, emotion, good selection intuition and racing statistics. Ultimately knowledge is power and the best-informed players have an advantage over the no effort, instant profit brigade.

Because it is open to interpretation I cannot review it as a 'system selects winners' type thing but I would like the opportunity to review it as a racing education manual!

The ebook is full of the most valid and precise information and gives rules and methods of how to find real opportunities to lay. JB lists multiple examples with numerous screenshots and explanations. It shows one how to examine the day's racecards and identify factors that makes the favourite more or less likely to win. As a consequence it would also help finding horses to back because it clearly identifies weak and strong favourites. There are separate sections covering both flat and jump racing.

On a personal note JB's explanation of how to use the Racing Post properly taught me a thing or two and I am an experienced racing fan. He also emphasised and reminded us all of the mindset needed to win. His response:

Thanks. Unlike many other system developers I spend a lot of time researching and actually contacting the relevant organisations to make sure any information provided in my manuals is accurate and informative. I liased with Racing Post headquarters for a few weeks in my guide to the RP. Simply because they have a tendency to change things around on the site such as adding and removing info. This can cause confusion/frustration so it's best to stay in the loop so to speak.

I asked him to give me his personal lays from using FF to test how he does with his own information:

I can offer you assistance when needed. I can assure you my core aim is to help punters cut through the HYPE & BS online and drill it down to the reality of what's involved when betting on horses. My blog is a launch pad for this and all site visitors get access to dozens of helpful articles, videos and links to FREE betting software/resources.

At no time was Jonathan Burgess or False Favourites aware that I was going to publish his responses to my questions as part of the review. It is important to mention that I am a writer for Betfair and my integrity means everything to me!

Conclusion: I have tested and read many systems that promise you instant gratification but I have NEVER come across anything before that is so comprehensive and valuable! The quality and detail of the book itself is first class including the terminology. It is obvious that a lot of work has gone into it. It is a superb compilation but the reader must be prepared to spend time to get the best out of it. I am a seasoned bettor and found that it took me close to an hour to gain selections from the process, others would take much more time. I have been assured that once I became familiar to the methodology of FF the filtering and sifting of races will become second nature. Of course spreading your bets across all codes without personalising is foolish as JB correctly reminded me:

I actively advise system users to FOCUS on ONE CODE of racing on any given day, this means either the flat or the jumps. Therefore when the flat season is in full swing we ignore jumps racing and vice versa. Not only does this save masses of time but it forces each user to specialise in a particular area of racing, meaning their efforts by default help them to gain a more intimate knowledge of the sport and its vagaries.

We both know there is far too much racing from the mundane seller to the group class. Wall to wall racing only leads to more clouded judgement. Bookies fools' gold for the ill informed.

Normal advice would be to paper trade for a few months before using but on this occasion it is not necessary. The information is so sound that by merely reading it you will become a more astute and informed punter and your strike rate will improve. It will become your bible and common denominator from which every decision can be made.

Although not a system in the way I perceive one to be it is the best 'automotive navigation system' in betting generally that I have ever come across. It is the 'dead reckoning' of horseracing manuals and it is a 'must have' to every single punter/gambler who aims to win from betting. To ignore or be without the information contained is folly!

As with proper products there is a Clickbank satisfaction guarantee and it is worth assuring that anyone who needs clarification or further assistance needs only to email JB personally. Throughout this review I have taken advantage of his time and can vouch for his professionalism. The FF blog is also evolving and is a great learning resource. 

False Favourites is the best ebook I have ever read and on that basis I unconditionally recommend it to all!

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