AL FREEJ 5.00 Wolverhampton is our Pacafi Bet today. She finished runner-up on both her first starts on the Polytrack and the form of those races has been boosted. On her first start over 6f at Wolverhampton she had been backed to win (5/2) but took a while to get the hang of things before running on. She looked an obvious improver. On her second start over that distance at Lingfield she was backed again into 10/11 favourite but things did not go her way. She was slowly away on the inside stall, then short of room on the first bend, then keen before taking too long to pick up and got beat by a good horse in Switzerland.
Finally in her third race back at Wolverhampton she was allowed to stride on after a furlong and only needed a shake of the reins to win without blowing. This is Roger Varian’s only runner today and the filly could have taken an engagement at Lingfield on Wednesday. Her opening mark looks fair and there is the prospect of more to come especially as we know she handles the track. We know she gets six furlongs so one expects the filly to be up in the first two after a furlong and then press on.
Roger Varian has good Wolverhampton statistics (albeit with a small sample) with three winners from eight runners while Dominic Fox (pictured) has ridden two winners for the trainer in the past fortnight. He must make use of his filly early and we expect the horse to lead most of the way. Robert Cowell has sank two of our Pacafi Bets already this month and that makes us nervous of him but this time believe our filly has more scope than his Cats Eyes. We havet taken the 11/8 offered by BetVictor and Paddy Power best price guaranteed (01.07).
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There were three other qualifiers for our bet today. Crowning Jewel 2.00 Carlisle is currently trading at even money and just missed out on selection based on price and the fact that David Pipe has sent Big Occasion up from Nicholashayne in Devon and the horse was decent on the flat.
The Racing Horse has decided not to oppose David Pipe...
The stable is in red-hot form and we do not want to take him on, better to wait for easier races. Crowning Jewel got beat last time out at 4/6 at Catterick though this track should suit him more. Also that Catterick form was given a massive boost on Saturday when Bourne won. A borderline decision but we think this race might be strong and there will be better even money chances.
Initially Red Somerset 3.20 Wolverhampton looked a decent bet but he breaks the most important rule of the Pacafi Bet in that the horse must come with trainer form. Irrespective of how good any horse is it is automatically disqualified if the trainer is in poor form. Mike Murphy’s last two runners in past 14 days have come last and last but one. The nine-year old has 80 races notched up to date and although has won at Wolverhampton looks to be a Kempton horse.
Finally Diamond D’Amour 4.45 Carlisle currently trading at 11/8 looks to have a great chance but trainer Bonchester Bridge George Bewley has not proved his horses are in form either though we note he has two winner this season so far. With no good recent form to go on we are prepared to overlook his horses today and watch them win.
Hi Paul, I’m fairly new to this magical website and more than impressed with what I have seen, especially the write up on Zarkandar at Newbury. Another particularly informative and interesting offering today with more than valuable information as to why three apparantly ‘Good Things’ should be overlooked. It is likely that some will end up with all four in a Yankee and good luck to them if they are successful. However, when its real money, i.e. mine, that I’m risking, I really appreciate this tempered view.
Sincere thanks for the work you selflessly share with us.
As for Albie, well…………………………..! ! !
H
Malcolm
Thanks for your comments though not sure about the word magical!
We hinted that David Pipe’s horse would beat Crowning Jewel and so it did at 5/1, not sure why it was not backed into about 7/2 or even shorter – perhaps the Pipes were not quite sure? We also got the George Bewley horse beat but Red Somerset won and based on its last run it had to go close but we never back a trainer out of form, though in fairness to Mike Murphy we based it on a very small sample.
Did enjoy reading your word tempered because we hope we are that.
Hurting a little this morning with Al Freej getting beat, there is no way Redair (the winner) is as good as our selection but in the book it won. We nearly did not back the horse because of the Dominic Fox factor but thought if he jumped the filly out she would do the rest.
Thanks again for your comments and great to have you with us…
Best Regards
Paul Moon