A horse trained in Pembrokeshire is tipped to become the first Welsh-trained winner of the Welsh National since 1965. Teaforthree will be ridden by champion jockey AP McCoy at Chepstow next Thursday but, as Cemlyn Davies explains, there has been some concern the race may have to be postponed because of the weather: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-20817699

In this clip The Racing Horse quote was taken out of context. In a much longer interview we had told Cemlyn that 'Teaforthree's chances would be greatly enhanced the softer the going was, especially given his low weight of 10st 4lbs and the requisite distance.' We did not say the horse was 'ground dependent' full stop. We saw him win at Cheltenham on good going over four miles for example!

The 2012 Coral Welsh National is unlikely take place on Thursday 27 December 2012 unless the weather relents. The course is currently waterlogged and there is an unfavourable weather forecast over the next few days. In the last week alone, four inches of rain have fell there, saturating the soil and leaving standing water in places.

Chepstow’s clerk of the course Keith Ottesen said the ground was ‘heavy and waterlogged in places.’ He told us yesterday: "We are delighted it’s dry now but it’s going to rain again so that will put us back a bit. We still have five days to go however. Based on what we have got, the way the course has behaved, we have a fighting chance of going ahead. It’s going to be a slog. But I have been talking to trainers and some are assuring me they want it that way. At the minute it’s all systems go."

Chepstow Racecourse in drier times...

Final preparations are being made at the venue in anticipation of the meeting being given the green light. Marquees are being put up, the hurdles are on the course and the rails are being moved to provide fresh ground. Despite the efforts Ottesen and his staff are currently working on a contingency plan to get the fixture moved should the course not be fit in time.

Only 20 are guaranteed a place in the line-up but at the five-day declaration stage 26 horses have stood their ground. Should top weight Tidal Bay defect, the weights would rise by a huge 18lb, resulting in the fancied Teaforthree and Michel Le Bon carrying over 11 stone. This is likely to happen as Paul Nicholls intends to send Tidal Bay to Ireland for the Lexus Chase as his first choice. For soft ground winner Michel Le Bon this race has been his target since his run behind The Package at Wincanton. Nicholls third declared runner in the race is Royal Charm and he will enjoy the ground.

Over the years the Welsh National has had to suffer its fair share of setbacks. In 2010 it was postponed until January because of snow and in 1994 the race was moved to Newbury on New Year’s Day. Because the Welsh National takes place at the earliest stage of the season and in the middle of winter, it favours horses that are fresh and those that that like a lot of cut in the ground. And despite being a handicap, it tends to be a very open race, with the horses stretched out like long-distance marathon runners by the end.

Very latest news on Sunday from Chepstow Racecourse

Officials at Chepstow will wait until Christmas Eve before deciding when to inspect for their Coral Welsh National meeting on Thursday. The Monmouthshire course has been hit by substantial rainfall in the last week ahead of the track's most high-profile fixture in the calendar. The course is currently waterlogged in places and there is more rain on the way.

Keith Ottesen sums things up

Clerk of the course Keith Ottesen said on Sunday morning: "In just over 24 hours we have had 45 millimetres, which takes us up to 135mm in nine days - that is nearly five and a half inches. We are up to 1500mm for the year and we had 849mm for the whole of 2011, so it's not quite doubled but we're not far off. It stopped raining at around 3am this morning and quite a bit of the surface water we had has now gone, so there has been improvement."

More rain due Sunday night

He continued: "However, there is quite high confidence that another band of rain is coming in tonight, bringing something between 10 and 15 millimetres and that will leave us where we were on Saturday. We will see what tonight brings before calling an inspection. We will be inspecting at some stage but the timing of it will depend on what we get tonight. There is more rain forecast for Monday and Tuesday, but it is showery in nature so we could miss those or we could get some sharp showers. There is another band coming in on Wednesday but it is not due to be as long as what we have been getting. We'll get through tonight and see where we are."

Contingency plans have been made for Saturday 5 January 2013

Chepstow officials are making contingency plans to switch the card to 5 January 2013 should conditions not improve sufficiently. "First and foremost we are thinking about racing on the 27th," said Ottesen. "It is not a foregone conclusion we won't race that day, though obviously with the rain we've had and are forecast there is some doubt. In the meantime we are working on a contingency plan."