98% of all statistics are made up…

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

We are not sure who said ‘statistics can be made to prove anything, even the truth’. That sounds about right to us. For some, horseracing is an entity consumed by statistics inextricably woven into the fabric of the sport in an historical integration. When one adds opinion that range from one extreme to another the unravelling becomes almost impossible. The Racing Horse does not see horseracing that way, we see things simpler. We all use statistics to aid our decision-making processes but predicting the outcome of a horse race and sports betting in general is more affected by random factors and things pertaining to the day.

  • Torture numbers, and they’ll confess to anything – Gregg Easterbrook.
  • Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital – Aaron Levenstein
  • Statistics can be made to prove anything, even the truth – Author Unknown

Learning the fundamental aspects of a race such as trainer form, the going, weight, pace in the race, class and distance, and acknowledging pieces of kit that the horse may or may not wear is far more important than historical data.

Gambling on horseracing has never been rocket-science and it is not even complicated. It is about 100% discipline, attitude, determination and sensible mathematical practices assisted wherever possible by good information and knowledge. How you approach gambling and what your expectation levels are, need to be realistic and feasible. The way you think about it also needs to be realistic along with the practices you employ. Very few people are able to administer these principles and the reason why most fail!

Lingfield inspects at 7am for its meeting, but there are no reported problems at Wolverhampton as they raced yesterday.

Two qualifiers for the Pacafi Bet but...

There are two qualifiers for the Pacafi Bet today and they are Lady Malet 2.00 Wolverhampton at 8/11 (Bet365 08.14) and Baby Dottie 4.05 Lingfield at 4/6 (Bet365 07.39). Both are too short in price. Lady Malet has had her chances and now looks most vulnerable at the price. The horse that interested us was Baby Dottie who arrives in good form but will be ridden by Jemma Marshall (pictured) who has not had a ride in 2013 so far.

Jemma Marshall

She might need today to blow away the cobwebs and will not be carrying The Racing Horse stake money. It is unfortunate to say but the qualifier is turned down based on jockeyship grounds. Over five seasons she has ridden just 13 winners, 10-215 on the AW  for a 5% strike-rate and 3-144 on Turf for a meagre 2%. She is a little better on today's course with 6-88 and a 7% strike-rate. Weighing in at about eight stone means, there will be a lot of dead lead in the saddle and, given her horses golden chance today, we are surprised she has been given the ride. On these occasions and with no bet in place we want to be wrong and see her ride a blinder! The horse deserves a third win.

Baby Dottie likes Lingfield and looks the pick

Baby Dottie’s two wins from 27 runs have been in winter, at Lingfield and over today’s 6f distance. She clearly runs her best races on this course. After her easy win last time out trainer Pat Phelan told us: "With no penalty for the apprentice win and the way she has won it we are going to have to look for something quickly to take advantage. This filly has finished second to nearly everything in her career, including Snow Fairy on debut over the course and distance in 2009!" Had any of the other jockeys in the race ridden the mare and we were offered something close to even money we might have been on.

Today's Pacafi Bet: There is not a Pacafi Bet today...

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3 Responses to 98% of all statistics are made up…

  1. Ian G says:
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    A good lesson in when a bet may appear a bet but the negatives prove it to be a false favourite.

    • Paul Moon says:
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      We knew this morning if you layed both horses you would make a profit yet they had ticks in most boxes. Were they false favourites though? Thinking about it a little they were both worthy favourites and false favourites but does that make sense? Is that a contradiction?

      Tell me Ian, had Tom McLaughlin rode Baby Dottie without the 5lb claim, would he have won the race? What if Philip Prince rode with his 7lb claim would he have won? Small margins? That is how hard our game is…

      As you say both appeared to be a bet!

      Thanks Ian

      Best wishes


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