Our parameters were explained in an article we submitted to Race Advisor on 13th November 2014, here is what we said:

The Racing Horse is indifferent to the plethora of supposed new betting advice systems and strategies that come on to the market. A few deserve scrutiny but the vast majority are either bogus or not fit for purpose. Some authors/sources deliberately procure false hope, others albeit unintentionally, enlist less important or flawed features and give wrong credence to certain aspects. More recently we have seen those that create systems and strategies that seek to complicate in order to raise their own profiles and then of course, we have a few that make a profit.

Essential prerequisites carrying argument weighting are what we require before wagering. This common sense rationale has stood the test of time and make up the ‘Four Corners’ of our betting slip. This  raison d’être was vital in 1950, essential now and will be relevant in 2050. With the help of Race Advisor we would like to herald and trumpet this lost message and reaffirm those quadripoints in order of importance!

The SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ELEMENT to any winning bet is ‘TRAINER FORM.’ The sum of the other parts are not as important. If there is a cornerstone to win betting this is it!

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Acknowledging trainer statistics and the mathematics that accompany them before making a win single bet is vital. It is a decisively indicative test that removes randomness, opinion and bias, it reveals how well the stable’s horses are currently and delivers an up to the minute litmus test. If backing the horses of trainers on the cold list is madness then it must be sensible to back trainers who have recorded winners?

Most of us know that there any amount of random factors that can affect a result and it takes small margins to win most races. These issues are more likely to be compounded if the horse is not fully wound up! Furthermore, if one accepts that handicap racing forms more than half of all races on the cards of UK race meetings a few pounds of improvement or decay can mean the difference between winning and finishing down the field.

Each horses has a potential ability level, whether they achieve that is another matter. The better the horse is trained and looked after the more it is likely to achieve but it is accepted that genetics and skeletal soundness are factors outside the trainer’s remit. Finding the bandwidth to which each horse can aspire needs the trainer to be totally in tune with his charge and, whilst some achieve most fail in this regard. Based on this incongruity we only trust recent form.

We were fortunate to spend the day with Monty Roberts (The Horse Whisperer) and he gave us lots of valuable information regarding horses, we adhere our betting to his golden principles. For example, he told us that every horse that has ever been born or ever will be born inherits optimum ground conditions. The onus rests solely on the bettor to find out before making an investment what that is!

Some racing people including trainers, irrationally spew that good horses go on any ground – they do NOT, some just handle it better or have something in hand of their rivals. A problem for systems is that they are unlikely to recognise/weigh/measure optimum or deteriorating conditions against the class the horses are racing in! It is here where many bets are won and lost.

So our intended wager has a tick in every box and a winning chance looks obvious, why would anyone compromise the bet once the horse arrives at the course after weeks/months of schooling and training? We know that trainers are not duty bound to give the ride to the best jockey available! They might use an apprentice, someone who is contracted, rides work or a favoured son. The owner might have some input or the decision might be political. But the bettor has no such restrictions. It is hard to measure or be scientific about the importance of jockeyship, but they are the trainer’s connection/conduit to the horse and it is often their decisions that dictate the result and our profit and loss.

The quadripoints listed probably represent 90% plus in importance towards a winning bet. Of course stable shenanigans, course configuration, traffic, draw and track bias, pace in the race, distance, weight, breeding and more can influence the result but the big four represents a solid core and serious starting point to any bet. This is where we part with most systems and strategies!

We always imagine placing a bet without one of those elements satisfied. In the cold light of day and without emotional fueling how confident would you feel about your bet then?

Next week we would like to talk a little more about what we are trying to achieve and invite the reader to visit us again. If you would like a FREE TRIAL to see or test our rationale then please email me at: paulmoon@theracinghorse.co.uk