2016 Betway Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)

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Doncaster Lincoln

The Racing Horse takes a look at a race that sucks in punters and spits them out. Welcome to the Lincoln! In an effort to redress the balance, albeit slightly, we offer some interesting trends that should not be ignored. Of course our very best advice regarding this handicap race is NOT to bet...


Signifcantly the last 13 winners of the Betway Lincoln were aged 6yo or younger. If we were to assume this trend continuing it would disqualify the likes of Farlow (8), Stipulate (7), Sirius Prospect (8), Ocean Tempest (7), Fire Ship (7) and Ingleby Angel (7). Also, 12 of the last 13 winners carried 9st 4lbs or less in weight which leaves us with Man Of Harlech (16/1), Storm Rock (12/1), Secret Brief (18/1 with BetVictor and Stan James) and Beach Bar (33/1 (William Hill and Paddy Power). Of those four runners the trainer with the best form is  Andrew Balding so in a race where it is silly to get involved our token selection is MAN OF HARLECH at 16/1.

2.45 Doncaster: Betway Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m CH4

13/13: Aged 6yo or younger
12/13: Had won over at least 1m before
12/13: Carried 9st 4lbs or less in weight
11/13: Had won between 2-4 times before
  9/13: Winning distance of 1 length or more
  9/13: Having their first run of the flat season
  9/13: Drawn in stall 9 or higher
  9/13: Unplaced favourites
  8/13: Returned a double figure price in the betting
  7/13: Officially rated between 95-98
  7/13: Placed first or second last time out
  7/13: Had raced at Doncaster before
  6/13: Aged 4yo
  6/13: Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
  5/13: Came from the top 3 in the betting
  5/13: Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
  5/13: Won last time out
  4/13: Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
  3/13: Winning favourites
  2/13: Trained by John Quinn
  2/13: Trained by Richard Fahey
  2/13: Trained by William Haggas

The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 14/1
The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle



And finally...

Charlie Appleby for  Godolphin runs Secret Brief in this race and his only entry for the day. The Racing Horse cannot help but compare the results of this trainer for 2015 against 2016 showing a massive difference of 46 winners for the same time period.

    January  2015 16-45 for 36%    January  2016 1-4 for 25%
    February 2015 12-47 for 26%    February 2016 0-3 for  0%
    March    2015 19-40 for 48%    March    2016 0-3 for  0%

What’s going on?

Today's Pacafi: click here

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