Dante Stakes Group 2

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The shape of the Derby is still so hard to make out that some outlets have been suggesting top fillies for the race. The Dante is the last major trial and its favourite could yet settle the pre-Epsom pecking order.

Flashy workers are frequently the ones who grab the headlines, but it is often said the best horses are those who hide their light under a bushel. Connections of Investec Derby favourite Midterm will certainly be hoping that is the case, for the colt reportedly shows almost nothing at home. He made a winning start when unfancied at Newbury in October and landed Sandown’s Classic Trial on his reappearance this season despite still failing to shine at home.

It is fair to say Midterm owes his position in the Derby betting in part to the lack of credible rivals for the favourite’s spot, as well as to trainer Sir Michael Stoute’s superb record in the race. Stoute has not had a lot to say about Midterm but confirmed: “He is a very relaxed horse at home and wakes up on the track, which we like. We’ve been pleased with his preparation since Sandown and I expect him to be suited by the track.”

midterm

3.15 York: Betfred Dante Stakes Group 2 1m2f88y

12/14: Winners that went onto run in the Epsom Derby (4 won)
11/14: Finished third or better last time out
10/14: Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
  8/14: Won their previous race
  8/14: Went onto be placed in the Epsom Derby
  8/14: Had a previous race that season
  4/14: Went onto win the Epsom Derby
  3/14: Winning favourites
  3/14: Won by Aidan O'Brien
  3/14: Won by Sir Michael Stoute
  3/14: Won by jockey Ryan Moore
  2/14: Had won over 1m2f before
  1/14: Had run at York before
  0/13: Winners from stall 2

Last year's winner - Golden Horn - went onto win the Epsom Derby
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

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Dante Stakes 2016: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Black Sea (Aidan O'Brien): Steady record of progression in 2015 and took another step forward when edging ahead close home in a 2000 Guineas trial last time at Leopardstown in a first-time tongue-tie. Likely to improve again but will need to do so to trouble the form principals here, for all that the longer trip should suit. 25
Choreographer (Roger Varian): Went some way to justifying €850,000 price tag on debut at Windsor last month, winning despite looking clueless in the preliminaries and having to overcome considerable inexperience. That was very promising in the circumstances and trainer Roger Varian wouldn't eschew a handicap mark of 87 were he not expecting a big performance. 20
Deauville (Aidan O'Brien): Finished behind Foundation twice last season, filling second spot in the Royal Lodge before taking fifth place in the Racing Post Trophy in first-time cheekpieces. Step up in trip here should suit (by Galileo out of a dam who stayed nine furlongs; brother to 11f winner The Corsican) and he could do better this season. 15/2
Foundation (John Gosden): Sent off a hot favourite for the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster but didn't really get the chance to make it a perfect season, encountering lots of trouble and finishing full of running after the eventual winner Marcel had got first run. Seasonal debut in the Craven Stakes was laboured, making heavy weather of pegging back the pacesetting outsider and was no match for winner Stormy Antarctic in the final furlong. Should stay this far. 7
Harrison (Mick Channon): Showed ability on debut last September and made no mistake at Goodwood 11 days later. Underwhelming run in handicap at Sandown on reappearance last month off 90 and lots to find with most of these rivals on form. 25
Kentuckyconnection (Bryan Smart): Redcar maiden winner who belied expectations when 100/1 fifth in 2000 Guineas just 12 days ago, seemingly stepping up massively on all previous form in first-time blinkers. Step back up in trip should suit and could be on the premises, though others open to more improvement. 50
Midterm (Sir Michael Stoute): Made a successful reappearance in the Group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown and although his effort didn't please everyone, he should benefit a good deal from the experience and remains a horse with considerable potential. By a Derby winner (Galileo) out of an Oaks runner-up (multiple Group 1 winner Midday) and there is little doubting his credentials for both this race and the Derby next month. 6/4
Muntazah (Owen Burrows): Third behind Foundation and Deauville in the Royal Lodge and his dam is from the family of Mawatheeq and Ghanaati - the longer trip here should suit. His first-season trainer Owen Burrows saddled the second home in the 2000 Guineas with his first ever runner in a Classic and this colt could surprise. 20
Sea of Flames (David Elsworth): Sole gelding in the line-up who has progressed well at Lingfield in 2016, starting with maiden win in January and culminating in valuable listed success last month. Steps up in both class and distance here and needs to improve again. 50
Top Beak (Hughie Morrison): Sprang a 25/1 surprise when making all on debut at Windsor last October (form franked since) but well held on reappearance in Derby Trial won by So Mi Dar at Epsom. Could just be that the course didn't suit there and remains with potential now returned to a more conventional track. 80
Victory Bond (William Haggas): Cruised home at Ripon last time out and is interesting judged on his debut second to Algometer at Newbury, form which ties him in somewhat with Midterm who had to dig deep to beat that same rival at Sandown. 12
Wings of Desire (John Gosden): Stablemate of Foundation and has already shown that stamina is his forte, having shed his maiden tag at Wolverhampton over 12 furlongs last month. This is a quick and exceedingly large jump up in class but he is a brother to the high class 2015 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes runner-up Eagle Top. Some concerns over whether he can show his best form over this trip but has seemingly been chosen over Foundation by Frankie Dettori, so definitely respected. 7

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