Investec Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) 1m4f10y

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Do not attempt to pick the winner of this most open Derby until you have analysed our 14-year trends! The current betting shows 6/1 the field and that highlights the difficulty of finding the winner.

4.30 Epsom: Investec Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) 1m4f10y

14/14: Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/14: Raced no more than 5 times before
14/14: Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14: Had won a Group race before
13/14: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14: Won from a single-figure stall
10/14: Won last time out
10/14: Favourites that were placed
..9/14: Had run over at least 1m2f before
..9/14: Had raced no more than 3 times before
..8/14: Had won a Group One before
..6/14: Irish-trained winners
..6/14: Won by the favourite
..4/14: Trained by Aidan O'Brien (won 5 in all)
..4/14: Won the Dante Stakes (York, 12th May) last time out
..3/14: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
..2/14: Winners from stall 12 or higher
..1/14: Won over 1m4f before
..0/14: Run at the course before

The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 7/2
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O'Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013 & 2014

Wings-of-desire

In recent years by far the best trial has been the Dante Stakes, run at York last month, with horses like Motivator, Authorised and last year's winner, Golden Horn, all using that race as their stepping stone to Epsom glory. Therefore, the winner of this year's race Wings Of Desire at 6/1 looks a player. The John Gosden-trained 3yo is improving rapidly and has Frankie in the saddle.

The race has actually been a decent one for the market leader in recent times with 10 of the last 14 being placed, while 6 of those favourites won

.
US Army Ranger at 13/2 is yet to lose from two runs and we know Aidan O’Brien believes there is a lot more to come. The shrewd Dermot Weld yard are also feared so their Harzand at 11/1 is of interest. This 3yo has won his last two and despite needing a step forward is clearly thought capable of holding his own in a race of this nature. Both of his wins have come in heavy ground.

The Stoute-trained Ulysses at 9/1 is another that's been well-supported in recent weeks after his 8 length Newbury romp and is another that's clearly held in high-regard, but that was just a maiden win last time out so this is a huge step up in class and so a lot has to be taken on trust.

Godolphin are still looking for their first Derby winner although trainer Saeed Bin Suroor did win the race in 1995 with Lammtarra. They will be trying to put that right this year with Moonlight Magic at 16/1 and Cloth of Stars at 9/1.

Our ratings show Wings Of Desire 100, Massaat 99, US Army Ranger 98, Red Verdon 97, Harzand 95.

Disclaimer
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