PACAFI (15th October 2016)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment
PACAFI  (15th October 2016)

SHOWED CLEAR PROMISE ON DEBUT, HAS SCOPE 

Munawer is a 350,000gns yearling and a first foal out of a 7f AW 2yo winner (RPR 83) and showed clear promise when a 7/1 second of 10 on Windsor debut over a mile 12 days ago. He made a very pleasing start to his racing career and with scope for improvement ought to build on that effort. Marc Monaghan’s allowance helps his cause and he ought to be good enough to get the better of Upgrade, only rated 75 after three moderate efforts so far though soft ground may not have suited last time.

OF HIS RIVALS INCLUDING BAHAR!

Punkawallah may well finish closer but the others with experience make no appeal so Bahar, a 150,000 euros purchase could prove a bigger threat (same owner as selection) and is preferred to fellow newcomer Dragonite. Should Bahar be heavily backed to beat the Pacafi then alarm bells will ring and remedial action taken. All things equal the Pacafi should shorten and Bahar should ease.

PALMER v HANNON

Make no mistake we will be angry if Hannon's horse beats ours and we will explain why. Palmer continues to have his horses in decent form compared to Hannon. At the course he shows 9-39 for 23% (+26.88) and he improves his strike-rate with his 2yos and scores 4-14 for 29% (+9.13). To level stakes Palmer shows a profit of around 10 points for September and October whilst Hannon shows a loss of 144 points. The former has 20 winners and the latter 15 winners.

         Hugo Palmer                      Richard Hannon

September 16-53 for 30% (+15.52)       9-178 for 5% (-119.92)
October    4-34 for 12% (-5.75)        6-73  for 8% (-24.00)

QUIET REFLECTION - TRAINED OVER?

The trainer of Upgrade, the current third favourite, is trained by Karl Burke. He has sent out 21 runners in October and no winners, 11 of those have been 2yos. Beware backing a favourite filly of ours in Quiet Reflection 2.00 Ascot, she has been on the go since April and is entitled to have trained over.

TIMEFORM COMMENTS
MUNAWER made an encouraging racecourse bow at Windsor earlier this month and looks sure to improve with that experience under his belt. He can open his account. Upgrade and the newcomer Bahar may give him most to think about.

Today's Pacafi: Munawer 7.45 Wolverhampton at 19/20 (Betbright 19.30) is a Pacafi. 1pt advised and value is better than 8/11

        PACAFI RESULTS from 1st July 2016 to the 15th OCTOBER 2016

October 2016        Odds  W/L   P/L    +/-     EX    CSF       %

Dubai Dunes         2.10  LOSE  £1.00  -£1.00   LOSE LOSE      0%
Outre Mer           1.91  WIN   £0.91  -£0.09  £5.70 £5.10    50%
Raheen House        2.25  WIN   £1.25  +£1.16  £5.60 £4.38    67%
First Voyage        2.50  LOSE  £1.00  +£0.16  £8.70 £7.56    50%
Subjective          1.67  LOSE  £1.00  -£0.84  £15.00 £9.46   40%
Vantage Point       1.40  LOSE  £1.00  -£1.84  £5.60 £5.15    33%
Hyper Dream         1.72  LOSE  £1.00  -£2.84    LOSE LOSE    29%
Gmaash              2.37  WIN   £1.37  -£1.47 £7.50  £7.51    38%
Munawer             1.95  WIN   £0.95  -£0.52 £60.70 £90.37   44%

        Selections: 9 Win: 4 Lose: 5 P/L: -£0.52     S/R:     44%


September 2016      Odds  W/L   P/L    +/-     EX    CSF       %

Argenterie          2.00  WIN  £1.00  +£1.00  £6.70 £5.80    100%
Raised On Grazeon   2.25  LOSE £1.00  +£0.00  £11.20 £11.72   50%
Mount Logan         2.75  WIN  £1.75  +£1.75  £11.60 £13.98   67%
Eyeshine            1.40  WIN  £0.40  +£2.15  £3.90 £5.10     75%
Idaho               1.83  LOSE £1.00  +£1.15   LOSE LOSE      60%
Best In The World   2.25  LOSE £1.00  +£0.15  £5.40 £5.07     50%
Baccarat            2.20  LOSE £1.00  -£0.85  £5.50 £6.17     43%
Queen Of The Stars  1.72  WIN  £0.72  -£0.13  £5.60 £5.36     50%
UAE Prince          1.57  WIN  £0.57  +£0.44  £6.40 £6.90     56%
Areen Heart         1.91  WIN  £0.91  +£1.35  £2.40 £2.58     60%
Rays The Money      1.72  LOSE £1.00  +£0.35  £8.20 £7.44     55%
Escobar             2.50  LOSE £1.00  -£0.65   LOSE LOSE      50%
Fair Eva            1.62  LOSE £1.00  -£1.65  £30.00 £22.58   46%
Await The Storm     2.37  LOSE £1.00  -£2.65   LOSE LOSE      43%
Best Laid Plans     2.10  LOSE £1.00  -£3.65  £4.10 £3.72     40%
Dubai One           2.25  WIN  £1.25  -£2.40  £3.40 £2.91     44%
Sincil Bank         1.80  WIN  £0.80  -£1.60  £5.90 £5.96     47%
Sun Lover           2.00  WIN  £1.00  -£0.60  £2.80 £2.58     50%
Hygrove Percy       2.25  WIN  £1.25  +£0.65  £18.30 £15.27   53%
.
       Selections: 19 Win: 10 Lose: 9 P/L: +£0.65 S/R:        53%
August 2016

Julia Dream        2.25  WIN  £1.25  £1.25  £12.40 £13.41   100%
Singing Sands      2.00  LOSE £1.00  £0.25   LOSE LOSE       50%
Mystique Heights   1.50  WIN  £0.43  £0.68  £5.00 £4.88      67%
Tanaasub           2.87  WIN  £1.87  £2.55  £16.60 £17.83    75%
Simmie             2.25  WIN  £1.25  £3.80  £7.20 £6.85      80%
St Michel          2.63  WIN  £1.63  £5.43  £20.70 £22.31    83%
Arzaak             1.67  LOSE £1.00  £4.43  £10.60 £8.70     71%
Walpole            1.80  WIN  £0.80  £5.23  £5.50 £5.74      75%
Tigerwolf          1.50  WIN  £0.50  £5.73  £3.00 £3.47      78%
Hit It A Bomb      2.75  LOSE £1.00  £4.73   LOSE LOSE       70%
Kings Fete         2.00  WIN  £1.00  £5.73  £8.80 £9.00      73%
Rich And Famous    1.91  WIN  £0.91  £6.64  £6.50 £8.13      75%
Materialistic      1.91  WIN  £0.91  £7.55  £5.50 £5.63      77%
Senator            2.00  WIN  £1.00  £8.55  £19.10 £42.77    79%
Eyeshine           2.10  LOSE £1.00  £7.55  £8.20 £5.96      73%
Sunset Dream       2.37  WIN  £1.37  £8.92  £2.70 £2.64      75%
Sofia's Rock       2.25  LOSE £1.00  £7.92   LOSE LOSE       71%
Maldonado          1.53  LOSE £1.00  £6.92  £8.20 £8.50      67% 

     Selections: 18 Win: 12 Lose: 6 P/L: +£6.92 S/R:         67%
July 2016

Rio Deva         3.00  WIN  £2.00  £2.00  £22.30 £24.88     100%
Lonely The Brave 2.25  WIN  £1.25  £3.25  £2.30 £2.52       100%
Mystique Heights 2.25  WIN  £1.25  £4.50  £4.50 £4.98       100%
Whirl Me Round   1.83  WIN  £0.83  £5.33  £4.00 £4.27       100%
South Seas       1.62  WIN  £0.62  £6.95  £13.10 £14.44     100%
Eskandari        2.00  LOSE £1.00  £5.95   LOSE LOSE         83%
Barroche         1.80  WIN  £0.80  £6.75  £3.00 £2.85        86%
Regal Monarch    1.91  LOSE £1.00  £5.75  £4.30 £4.69        75%
Phijee           1.91  WIN  £0.91  £6.66  £39.70 £66.22      78%
Laureate         1.83  LOSE £1.00  £5.66   LOSE LOSE         70%
Silver Concorde  1.56  LOSE £1.00  £4.66  £7.00 £6.33        64%
Full Intention   1.72  LOSE £1.00  £3.66  £29.00 £14.57      58%
 
         Selections: 12 Win: 7 Lose: 5 P/L: +£3.66 S/R:      58%
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