PACAFI (1st November 2016)

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FINE RUN ON TAPETA LAST TIME OUT

Stanley is a half-brother to three-times winner Nigel and this looks a great opportunity to get off the mark at the fourth attempt. Luca Cumani's Sea The Stars colt may have failed to stay 1m4f on his second start and has since produced a fine run on Tapeta at Newcastle. Before his last run he had not raced since July so will strip fitter today and he has ace AW jockey in the sadddle to assist where on this surface we rate him 6lbs better than Tom Queally.

CUMANI HAS HIS HORSES IN GREAT FORM

Luca Cumani has his horses in brilliant form at the moment. From his last 9 runners 4 have won, 1 has finished second and 2 have finished third. The prices of those winners include 13/2, 7/1, 7/2 and 9/2. At Wolverhampton the trainer scores 13-50 for 26% and a level stake profit of +10.49pts. The Cumani-Kirby combination show 52-218 for 24% generally. The strike-rate rises to 29% with the 3yos with 33-113 and a small profit.

OF HIS RIVALS

Alf Guineas was trapped wide and didn't appear to stay the 1m4f on soft ground at Pontefract last time also (her full brother the 4yo Sea Storm has won three at this distance). It looked a shocking race and the way she folded would be a concern going forward. That said she only found one too good on her debut over this trip at Chelmsford and it would be no surprise to see her bounce back here. It is strange that John Gosden, who is known for his patience, is giving her a third run since 6th October and asking his filly to beat the colts? In this two horse race she remains the danger to the Pacafi.


Spinart has been shaping as though a step up from a mile would suit but his breeding suggests otherwise, though he has more scope than Angelical. Sehail is an interesting newcomer.

TIMEFORM COMMENTS

STANLEY got his career firmly back on track when third in a stronger race than this at Newcastle 16 days ago and can get off the mark at the fourth time of asking. Alf Guineas was very disappointing at Pontefract recently but will be a big threat if bouncing back to the form she showed on her AW debut. Angelical was placed in a handicap last time and can hit the frame again back in maiden company.

Today's Pacafi: Stanley 4.00 Wolverhampton at 6/4 (Bet365 16.16) is a Pacafi. 1pt win advised and value is better than evens

        PACAFI RESULTS from 1st July 2016 to the 31st OCTOBER 2016

October 2016        Odds  W/L   P/L    +/-     EX    CSF       %

Dubai Dunes         2.10  LOSE  £1.00  -£1.00   LOSE LOSE      0%
Outre Mer           1.91  WIN   £0.91  -£0.09  £5.70 £5.10    50%
Raheen House        2.25  WIN   £1.25  +£1.16  £5.60 £4.38    67%
First Voyage        2.50  LOSE  £1.00  +£0.16  £8.70 £7.56    50%
Subjective          1.67  LOSE  £1.00  -£0.84  £15.00 £9.46   40%
Vantage Point       1.40  LOSE  £1.00  -£1.84  £5.60 £5.15    33%
Hyper Dream         1.72  LOSE  £1.00  -£2.84    LOSE LOSE    29%
Gmaash              2.37  WIN   £1.37  -£1.47  £7.50  £7.51   38%
Munawer             1.95  WIN   £0.95  -£0.52 £60.70 £90.37   44%
Brio Conti          2.37  LOSE  £1.00  -£1.52    LOSE LOSE    40%
Warriors Tale       2.63  LOSE  £1.00  -£2.52    LOSE LOSE    36%
Bigad Bihoue        2.50  WIN   £0.50  -£2.02  £4.80 £7.97    42%
Brian The Snail     2.20  WIN   £1.20  -£0.82  £4.00 £4.94    46% 
St Malo             1.80  WIN   £0.80  -£0.02  £3.80 £4.47    50%
Cue Card            1.80  LOSE  £1.00  -£1.02    LOSE LOSE    47%
Latharnach          2.75  LOSE  £1.00  -£2.02    LOSE LOSE    44%
Late Night Lily     2.37  WIN   £1.37  -£0.65  £14.00 £15.21  47%
Adrrastos           2.10  LOSE  £1.00  -£1.65   £9.30 £8.86   44%

        Selections: 18 Win: 8 Lose: 10 P/L: -£1.65     S/R:   44%
    


September 2016      Odds  W/L   P/L    +/-     EX    CSF       %

Argenterie          2.00  WIN  £1.00  +£1.00  £6.70 £5.80    100%
Raised On Grazeon   2.25  LOSE £1.00  +£0.00  £11.20 £11.72   50%
Mount Logan         2.75  WIN  £1.75  +£1.75  £11.60 £13.98   67%
Eyeshine            1.40  WIN  £0.40  +£2.15  £3.90 £5.10     75%
Idaho               1.83  LOSE £1.00  +£1.15   LOSE LOSE      60%
Best In The World   2.25  LOSE £1.00  +£0.15  £5.40 £5.07     50%
Baccarat            2.20  LOSE £1.00  -£0.85  £5.50 £6.17     43%
Queen Of The Stars  1.72  WIN  £0.72  -£0.13  £5.60 £5.36     50%
UAE Prince          1.57  WIN  £0.57  +£0.44  £6.40 £6.90     56%
Areen Heart         1.91  WIN  £0.91  +£1.35  £2.40 £2.58     60%
Rays The Money      1.72  LOSE £1.00  +£0.35  £8.20 £7.44     55%
Escobar             2.50  LOSE £1.00  -£0.65   LOSE LOSE      50%
Fair Eva            1.62  LOSE £1.00  -£1.65  £30.00 £22.58   46%
Await The Storm     2.37  LOSE £1.00  -£2.65   LOSE LOSE      43%
Best Laid Plans     2.10  LOSE £1.00  -£3.65  £4.10 £3.72     40%
Dubai One           2.25  WIN  £1.25  -£2.40  £3.40 £2.91     44%
Sincil Bank         1.80  WIN  £0.80  -£1.60  £5.90 £5.96     47%
Sun Lover           2.00  WIN  £1.00  -£0.60  £2.80 £2.58     50%
Hygrove Percy       2.25  WIN  £1.25  +£0.65  £18.30 £15.27   53%
.
       Selections: 19 Win: 10 Lose: 9 P/L: +£0.65 S/R:        53%
August 2016

Julia Dream        2.25  WIN  £1.25  £1.25  £12.40 £13.41   100%
Singing Sands      2.00  LOSE £1.00  £0.25   LOSE LOSE       50%
Mystique Heights   1.50  WIN  £0.43  £0.68  £5.00 £4.88      67%
Tanaasub           2.87  WIN  £1.87  £2.55  £16.60 £17.83    75%
Simmie             2.25  WIN  £1.25  £3.80  £7.20 £6.85      80%
St Michel          2.63  WIN  £1.63  £5.43  £20.70 £22.31    83%
Arzaak             1.67  LOSE £1.00  £4.43  £10.60 £8.70     71%
Walpole            1.80  WIN  £0.80  £5.23  £5.50 £5.74      75%
Tigerwolf          1.50  WIN  £0.50  £5.73  £3.00 £3.47      78%
Hit It A Bomb      2.75  LOSE £1.00  £4.73   LOSE LOSE       70%
Kings Fete         2.00  WIN  £1.00  £5.73  £8.80 £9.00      73%
Rich And Famous    1.91  WIN  £0.91  £6.64  £6.50 £8.13      75%
Materialistic      1.91  WIN  £0.91  £7.55  £5.50 £5.63      77%
Senator            2.00  WIN  £1.00  £8.55  £19.10 £42.77    79%
Eyeshine           2.10  LOSE £1.00  £7.55  £8.20 £5.96      73%
Sunset Dream       2.37  WIN  £1.37  £8.92  £2.70 £2.64      75%
Sofia's Rock       2.25  LOSE £1.00  £7.92   LOSE LOSE       71%
Maldonado          1.53  LOSE £1.00  £6.92  £8.20 £8.50      67% 

     Selections: 18 Win: 12 Lose: 6 P/L: +£6.92 S/R:         67%
July 2016

Rio Deva         3.00  WIN  £2.00  £2.00  £22.30 £24.88     100%
Lonely The Brave 2.25  WIN  £1.25  £3.25  £2.30 £2.52       100%
Mystique Heights 2.25  WIN  £1.25  £4.50  £4.50 £4.98       100%
Whirl Me Round   1.83  WIN  £0.83  £5.33  £4.00 £4.27       100%
South Seas       1.62  WIN  £0.62  £6.95  £13.10 £14.44     100%
Eskandari        2.00  LOSE £1.00  £5.95   LOSE LOSE         83%
Barroche         1.80  WIN  £0.80  £6.75  £3.00 £2.85        86%
Regal Monarch    1.91  LOSE £1.00  £5.75  £4.30 £4.69        75%
Phijee           1.91  WIN  £0.91  £6.66  £39.70 £66.22      78%
Laureate         1.83  LOSE £1.00  £5.66   LOSE LOSE         70%
Silver Concorde  1.56  LOSE £1.00  £4.66  £7.00 £6.33        64%
Full Intention   1.72  LOSE £1.00  £3.66  £29.00 £14.57      58%
 
         Selections: 12 Win: 7 Lose: 5 P/L: +£3.66 S/R:      58%
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