Worrying About Jonjo

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Jonjo O'Neill is one of the great men of National Hunt Racing and he enriches our sport. As both jockey and trainer he has reached almost every height the great sport has to offer. The dignified way he dealt with and then beat cancer was heart-warming, whilst his affinity with horses and thirst for success never changed. The Racing Horse salutes him for his stature, contribution and involvement, however there is a problem...

Winning the Jockeys' Championship whilst based in the north of England was an incredible effort!

Jonjo O’Neill (13th April 1952, County Cork) rode his first winner in 1970 on Lana who dead heated at the Curragh. Three years later he moved to England and his career blossomed. In 1977/78 he broke the record for most winners in a season with 149 and the following season he claimed the Jockeys’ Championship for a second successive time. Remarkably he achieved it whilst being based in the north of England.

Over the course of his career...

Over the course of his career he sustained many injuries, some of them serious. He certainly experienced the highs and lows of the sport giving him a true perspective of things to come. He was associated with some marvelous horses including Night Nurse, Sea Pigeon and Dawn Run, who he partnered to win the Champion Hurdle and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. In total he rode over 900 winners and there was nothing he did not know about the game. His knowledge and racing intelligence inevitably led to training where he proved he could hit jackpots and 26 Festival winners places him fourth among the current crop of trainers and joint-seventh with Arkle’s trainer Tom Dreaper on the all-time list.

Won the Gold Cup and Grand National

In seven attempts as a jockey he had never completed the Grand National course but won the race as a trainer in 2010 with Don't Push It. In 2012 he won the Gold Cup, the most prestigious of all National Hunt events, with Synchronise. Jonjo's staunch intention has always been to become only the second man (after the great Fred Winter) to become champion National Hunt trainer after being champion jockey and no one is better placed to achieve that.

Jackdaws Castle

The Racing Horse was privileged to have visited Jonjo at Jackdaw Castle and share food and drink with him in the Plough Inn public house at the bottom of his gallops afterwards. Yes, I was in a pub drinking lager, sat next to Jonjo O'Neill, talking about racing. Listening to that learned County Cork lilt we witnessed his X factor first-hand and found him gentle, courteous and genuine and a smile that was warm.

AP McCoy said of the facilities

We especially echo the comments of AP McCoy who told us: Jackdaws Castle is without doubt one of Europe's premier training establishments, you really do have to see it to believe it. The facilities are absolutely second to none. Jonjo has a natural gift with horses. He understands their every need and places them to perfection, which makes my job a lot easier. All in all, Jonjo is passionate but realistic, honest and a straight-talking person. He is a top class trainer and a lot of fun. I would call him a true racing legend and a great friend."

So why has Jonjo O'Neill not challenged for Champion Trainer?

It is hard to imagine there is anything better in the world than Jackdaws Castle for training National Hunt horses and we include Manor Farm Stables and Seven Barrows. Jonjo has been heavily supported by the biggest owner of the sport JP McManus where money appears to be no object so, with this in mind, it is hard to understand why Jonjo has not broken through and challenged for champion trainer? We know this national icon has the knowledge, facilities, financial support and the skill set so when we look at his figures they do not make sense. 

Missing ingredient?

When JP McManus and Jonjo appointed AP McCoy as first jockey at Jackdaws Castle in 2004 it was supposedly the last of several strategic moves to create the perfect environment for their NH horses. First came the modernising of gallops and yards, then the recruitment of high-quality racing stock and then the signing of arguably the best jockey the sport has seen. But it never happened. It almost seems there is a missing ingredient though compellingly McCoy lamented more than once to the media about not having 'Saturday horses' at the yard so perhaps the buying of stock is the first place to look.

If money is not the problem - who is buying the stock?

Has Racing Manager Frank Berry played a part in the demise, with JP's millions could they buy better or earlier? For 2016/17 Jonjo ran around 50 horses owned by JP - how many of those are of the requisite quality? We know 32 of those did not win a race, 13 won one race, 4 won two races and only 1 won 3 (Easy Street). As we understand it Berry is responsible for communicating with the trainers and talking to McManus most evenings. His brief extends to the purchase of new stock, organising the logistics of jockeys, poring over formbooks, teasing out future plans and handling media enquiries. How well has he performed? One thing is clear, looking at Jonjo's most recent results it is clearly not acceptable his strike-rate is anchored at 11% - he and Jackdaws Castle are too good for that!

Should be competing with Nicholls and Henderson for the top prizes

His last five seasons looks quite different to the likes of Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls and two trainers he should be competing with. It is particularly curious given volume to see his hurdlers winning 14% whilst his chasers win 15%. Of his 64 winners this season only 9% of his hurdlers won (28 winners) and this does not seem many at all. His chase winners won at 11% (32) and 16% with his NHF (4).

Looking at his big wins in recent years

Looking at his big wins in the past 3 years the trainer must be personally disappointed. On the 8th April he did win the Crabbie's Topham Chase Handicap with Eastlake with £67,356 prize money but then had to wait until 12th November to win the BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase Grade 3 and £91,120. These were the only two big ones and no winners at the Cheltenham Festival. Prior to these successes we have to go back to 2014 where he had a run of success in a mini-golden period culminating with the Irish Grand National and Shutthefrontdoor, there was nothing for him in 2015. How did that happen?

Apr 2012-2017 Wins Runs S/R Profits
NHF 30 181 17% -42.98
Hurdle 260 1878 14% -564.91
Chase 183 1259 15% -290.62

The figures below only cement our apprehension especially when you consider that in 2001/02 he trained more than 100 winners in a season for the first time and 15 years later he records just 64.

2016-17 64 609 11 -211.97
2015-16 81 560 14 -114.49
2014-15 104 634 16 -185.21
2013-14 134 810 17 -181.49
2012-13 90 705 13 -205.36
2011-12 97 649 15 -109.52
2010-11 94 750 13 -160.11
2009-10 105 723 15 -189.30
2008-09 97 623 16 -64.07
2007-08 106 716 15 -200.12
2006-07 126 821 15 -150.33
2005-06 105 711 15 -176.34
2004-05 96 521 18 -149.31
2003-04 102 632 16 -106.22
2002-03 115 546 21 -34.72
2001-02 113 477 24 +124.74

Worst statistics in 16 years

2015/16 was his lowest for 15 seasons but this season he has eclipsed that. We are not talking small numbers and his peers would have noticed and been surprised. If we total the last 2 seasons he trained 145 winners but the previous 2 seasons 238 winners so a drop of 93. The 11% strike-rate confirms a stark reality that carries an unpalatable truth.

Hard to make sense

Seeing the recent figures in context Jonjo O'Neill trained the same total of winners as Tim Vaughan from his Pant Wilkin Stables in Cowbridge, South Wales and 31 less than newbie Dan Skelton and 34 less than Neil Mulholland. He sits joint-ninth in the Trainer's Championship. His 4 winners from his last 13 runners for 31% helped him secure his place in the top 10 or he would have finished behind Tom George (62 winners). Furthermore, Fergal O'Brien trained 55 winners recording 2 less winners over hurdles than Jonjo but significantly he trained 12 NHF winners compared to 4 for Jonjo - is this figure worth a visit and does it mean anything?

More Of That to win the 2017 Grand National

Of course it is possible Jonjo will win the Grand National again and then go on to train 120 winners next season but something different/seismic/substantial has got to happen. Should he return 70 winners next season it will tarnish and something we do not want to see. The Racing Horse genuinely hopes the trainer finds the missing link from his operation and 2017/18 is a success. We note that Go Conquer (ran well at the Festival) runs in the Topham Chase this year and hope he repeats the victory of Eastlake. We will also cheer on More Of That (currently 20/1) in the Grand National and hope he doesn't bleed so able to put it all in. We know how highly the horse is regarded by the trainer and earlier this season said he was the 'best horse he has ever trained' and if that is true he must have a chance if fit and well...

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