1m (7f213y) (Rnd) St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Entire 3yo Colts)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment


TWO BETS FOR ROYAL ASCOT

The Racing Horse has taken the even money about Ribchester 2.30 Ascot for the reasons already given and we have also backed Churchill 4.20 Ascot at 4/6. Churchill is a Galileo colt who has ran eight times for seven wins and banked close to a £1,000,000 in prize money. His only defeat was on debut when he clearly needed the run.

DISAPPOINTING

Yesterday was very disappointing. We believed Ben Curtis would have a win double on our bets, he had a win treble but only one on our Pacafis. Not sure he was at his very best on Contentment either. We backed one of the two Haggas horses, ours got beat and the other (Solo Mission) won! Ye Gods.

GHOST SERGE WINS and 10/11 READILY AVAILABLE

Ordinarily, Ghost Serge would have had a difficult task under a 7lb penalty but he has a terrific attitude and is probably a level or two above these rivals. He didn't respond instantly when shaken up but he looks a real grinder and was able to assert in the final furlong, eventually winning with a bit in hand which would have taken some doing under that big weight. Sharp tracks could find him out but he looks sure to benefit from at least another furlong and connections are now targeting either the Listed Pat Eddery race at Ascot on King George Day or the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket.

NOT CONTENT

Our second bet Contentment spoilt our day as we wanted that one to lead as per Goodwood but Curtis rode her with restraint. Ultimately the winner who was more experienced toughed us out of it. We saw the money in the morning coming for Miss Sheridan so played on the forecast markets so did not lose all of our stake.

LOOKING FOR KIND TRIPS

Apologies to our members, we are trying hard to get ahead for June but cannot get a good run going. We deserve better than our results suggest. Royal Ascot is here and good horses racing on fast ground - all we ask is some clean running/good trips for out bets.

NO STOUTE at ASCOT BUT WIN DOUBLE BECKONS!

The Racing Horse notes that Sir Michael Stoute does NOT have a runner at Ascot on the opening day, wonder why? He looks likely to have a win double though with Times Arrow 3.20 Thirsk at 1/3 (trading at 1.42 and 1.44 on Betfair) and Flourishing 6.30 Beverley at 13/8. The second horse qualifies for our System8.

IF NEW WORLD POWER STARTS FAV it WINS!

It is a big day for us with 4 bets already staked and it could have been 5, are there were one or two borderline qualifiers. David Simcock runs New World Power (System8) who currently trades at 5/2, if this was a going day we would expect the colt to start favourite and probably closer to 7/4. By the way the trainer is 5-9 for 56% at Thirsk, this looks a plan...


CHURCHILL TO CONFIRM FORM WITH BARNEY ROY

Churchill was the top 2yo from last year and he finished his season by winning two Group 1 races including the Dewhurst by a length and a quarter from his stablemate Lancaster Bomber. He's another winner from this meeting last year having won the Chesham Stakes on his second start but it's his form from this year that has seen him go odds-on for the St James Palace Stakes. First time up he beat the Godolphin owned Barney Roy by a length to land the Newmarket 1000 Guineas and then won the Irish version by 2 1/2 lengths from another Godolphin horse, Thunder Snow. Connections of the runner-ups are keen to take the favourite on again but even though both of them stayed on well through the final furlong to chase him right to the line I'm not sure there were that many excuses to justify backing either of them to reverse the placings.

It could be argued that Churchill had a smooth trip in the English 1000 Guinesas whilst Barney Roy was keen early and then stumbled into the Dip and didn't always have a great deal of room to play with but Churchill is a relaxed big horse and there looked to be plenty left in him. On ORs he has 5lbs to spare on his rival but we believe it might be a bit more than that.

TIMEFORM VIEW

The Guineas 1-2 Churchill and BARNEY ROY are several pounds clear on Timeform ratings, and this could develop into a duel. From a value point of view, Barney Roy looks the better bet, given he has only a length to find on his rival and has been kept fresh since. He will also have learnt plenty from his Newmarket experience, only the third run of his career.

Today's Pacafi:                       Ribchester 2.30 Ascot at evens (Stan James, SkyBet, Paddy Power and Betfair 21.40) 1pt win advised and Churchill 4.20 Ascot at 4/6 (Bet365, SkyBet, Paddy Power and Betfair). 1pt win advised.
                PACAFI RESULTS FOR JUNE 2017
                 (21221012110011001211121)

Not After Midnight  2.25 LOSE  -1.00  -1.00  £15.60 £15.22    0%
Villa Tora          2.00 WIN   +1.00  +0.00  £12.90 £13.96   50%
Rainy City          1.62 LOSE  -1.00  -1.00   £2.10 £2.29    33%
Rebel Assault       1.57 LOSE  -1.00  -2.00   £6.20 £5.23    25%
Laugh Aloud         2.25 WIN   +1.25  -0.75   £9.40 £7.42    40%
Mabo                3.75 LOSE  -1.00  -1.75     LOSE LOSE    33%
Day Of Roses        1.67 WIN   +0.67  -1.08   £2.10 £2.22    43%
Makanah             1.53 LOSE  -1.00  -2.08  £24.20 £12.21   38%
Another Batt        1.62 WIN   +0.62  -1.46   £3.60 £3.18    44%
God Given           1.36 WIN   +0.36  -1.10   £7.70 £5.88    50%
Rebel Assault       1.62 LOSE  -1.00  -2.10    LOSE LOSE     45%
Alaadel             2.50 LOSE  -1.00  -3.10    LOSE LOSE     42%
Paradise Cove       1.62 WIN   +0.62  -2.48   £4.00 £4.91    46%
Nags Wag            2.37 WIN   +1.37  -1.11   £5.80 £5.32    50%
Tough Remedy        1.62 LOSE  -1.00  -2.11     LOSE LOSE    47%
Tayaaleb            1.57 LOSE  -1.00  -3.11     LOSE LOSE    44%
Bagad Bihoue        1.67 WIN   +0.67  -2.44   £2.00 £1.87    47%         
So Sleek            2.25 LOSE  -1.00  -3.44   £34.50 £23.11  44%
Minotaur            1.67 WIN   +0.67  -2.77    £2.30 £2.19   47%
Enzani (R4)         1.83 WIN   +0.50  -2.27    £4.50 £3.60   50%
Ghost Serge         1.83 WIN   +0.83  -1.44    £9.60 £7.93   52%
Contentment         2.67 LOSE  -1.00  -2.44    £8.70 £7.44   50%
Ribchester          2.10 WIN   +1.10  -1.34    £8.53 £4.50   52%
Churchill           1.67

  Selections: 23 Win: 12 Lose: 11 Profit: -1.34 Strike-Rate: 52%
                   PACAFI RESULTS FOR MAY 2017
                (111211210120110212211201212111)

Bedrock             2.10 WIN   +1.10  +1.10  £3.10  £3.51   100%
Rock Of Estonia     1.91 WIN   +0.91  +2.01  £8.40  £7.65   100%
Commodity           1.80 WIN   +0.80  +2.81  £10.70 £10.23  100%
Time's Arrow        2.25 LOSE  -1.00  +1.81  £4.70  £3.93    75%
Seventh Heaven R4   2.10 WIN   +0.89  +2.70  £3.20  £2.90    80%
Longroom            1.57 WIN   +0.57  +3.27  £6.30  £5.94    83%
Stradivarius        2.87 LOSE  -1.00  +2.27  £20.60 £15.72   71%
Capitaine           1.57 WIN   +0.57  +2.82  £1.70  £1.80    75%
Dahik               2.00 LOSE  -1.00  +1.82    LOSE LOSE     67%
Yalawin             1.57 WIN   +0.57  +2.39  £8.30  £9.41    70%
Qemah               2.00 LOSE  -1.00  +1.39  £11.90 £9.15    64%
Red Royalist        2.37 LOSE  -1.00  +0.39    LOSE LOSE     58%
Bach De Clermont    2.00 WIN   +1.00  +1.39  £2.90  £2.47    62%
Speed Shutter       1.57 WIN   +0.57  +1.96  £7.40 £8.22     64%
Gold Town           1.91 LOSE  -1.00  +0.96    LOSE LOSE     60%         
Hargam              1.91 LOSE  -1.00  -0.04  £4.40 £4.28     56%
Lieutenant Gruber   1.44 WIN   +0.44  +0.40  £6.30 £4.97     59%
Way Of Wisdom       1.72 LOSE  -1.00  -0.60  £10.90 £8.39    56%
Forever Field       1.72 LOSE  -1.00  -1.60  £2.70  £2.52    53%
Out Of Flame R4     1.50 WIN   +0.48  -1.12  £6.90  £7.25    55%
Master Singer       1.62 WIN   +0.62  -0.50  £32.40 £56.27   57%
Lovely Touch        1.72 LOSE  -1.00  -1.50  £37.70 £20.16   55%
Sound And Silence   2.75 LOSE  -1.00  -2.50    LOSE LOSE     52%
Big Orange          2.37 WIN   +1.37  -1.13  £7.00 £6.80     54%
Atty Persse         2.00 LOSE  -1.00  -2.13  £8.00 £8.45     52%
Churchill           1.44 WIN   +0.44  -1.69   £3.10 £3.30    54%
Chessman            1.83 LOSE  -1.00  -2.69  £18.70 £17.67   52%
Winter              1.91 WIN   +0.91  -1.78  £10.40 £12.08   54%
Capt'ofindustry R4  2.10 WIN   +1.00  -0.78   £5.50 £5.99    55%
Westerland          2.00 WIN   +1.00  +0.22   £5.60 £5.48    57%


 Selections: 30  Win: 17 Lose: 13 Profit: +0.22 Strike-Rate: 57%
                   PACAFI RESULTS FOR APRIL 2017
                  (22011111110112120111211121020)

Rock Of America     2.37 LOSE  -1.00  -1.00  £27.00 £18.73    0%
Spiritual Man       2.37 LOSE  -1.00  -2.00  £18.30 £13.95    0%
Hart Stopper        3.75 LOSE  -1.00  -3.00   LOSE  LOSE      0%
Timeforwest         2.00 WIN   +1.00  -2.00   £6.30 £6.99    25%
Archers Arrow       2.25 WIN   +1.25  -0.75   £4.60  £4.27   40%
D B Pin             2.50 WIN   +1.50  +0.75     NA    NA     50%
Masterson           1.72 WIN   +0.72  +1.47   £5.90 £5.90    57%
Cesar Et Rosalie    2.00 WIN   +1.00  +2.47   £2.60 £2.62    63%
Might Bite          1.63 WIN   +0.63  +3.10   £2.10 £2.47    67%
Dubai Horizon       2.25 WIN   +1.25  +4.35   £8.00 £8.25    70%
Team Meeting        1.72 LOSE  -1.00  +3.35    LOSE LOSE     64%
Son Of The Stars    3.00 WIN   +2.00  +5.35   £4.40 £4.18    67%
Convey              2.87 WIN   +1.87  +7.22   £9.10 £9.88    69%
Lady Mix            2.75 LOSE  -1.00  +6.22   £10.00 £8.17   64%
Jenkins             1.29 WIN   +0.29  +6.51   £3.30 £3.20    67%
Bardd               1.72 LOSE  -1.00  +5.51   £3.40 £3.46    63%
Jezki               2.50 LOSE  -1.00  +4.51    LOSE LOSE     59%
Talent To Amuse     1.57 WIN   +0.57  +5.08   £1.70 £1.66    61%
Passcode            2.37 WIN   +1.37  +6.45   £9.80 £8.90    63%
William Henry       1.67 WIN   +0.67  +7.12   £20.10 £15.80  65%
Listen To The Man   1.91 LOSE  -1.00  +6.12   £2.40 £5.23    62%
Colonial Dreams     2.25 WIN   +1.25  +7.37   £2.40 £2.59    64%
Crystal Ocean       2.75 WIN   +1.75  +9.12   £9.20 £8.10    65% 
Corinthia Knight    1.91 WIN   +0.91  +10.03  £4.10 £4.99    67%
Excellent Team      1.67 LOSE  -1.00  +9.03   £4.00 £3.36    64%
Sizing John         2.10 WIN   +1.10  +10.13  £3.60 £3.84    65%
Monarchs Glen       2.00 LOSE  -1.00  +9.13    LOSE LOSE     63%
Desert Rain         2.75 LOSE  -1.00  +8.13   £12.20 £9.07   61%
El Vip              2.63 LOSE  -1.00  +7.13    LOSE LOSE     59%

  Selections: 29 Win: 17 Lose: 12 Profit: +7.13 Strike-Rate: 59%
Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that all gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Delicious
  • LinkedIn
  • StumbleUpon
  • Add to favorites
  • Email
  • RSS

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *