The Racing Horse looks at the 3.00 Ascot Gigaset International Handicap 7f (Class 2) (3yo+) and shows the trends since 2006 and we sense a shock is on the cards! A BIG ONE! The going this morning is good to soft, soft in places on the round course and clerk of the course Chris Stickels said a little earlier: "We've had 2mm of rain since racing yesterday and the track is in great condition." But, there is rain forecast after 1pm so we can forget fast ground and only need to consider those who have won on good to soft or softer...
The Racing Horse advises looking for a 4 or 5yo GB or Irish bred who had their last run in a Class 2 or 3, had ran in the previous 45 days, carried less than 9st 1lbs in real weight and has form on soft ground.
11/11 had their last run in Class 2 or 3 company
11/11 Ran in the previous 45 days
10/10 That last ran on AW finished unplaced
10/11 Carried less than 9st 1lbs (after jockey claims)
10/11 Last raced in handicap company
10/11 GB or Irish bred (just 1-28 US bred)
7/11 Last ran at Ascot (3) or Newmarket (4)
1/11 Won by claiming jockey (3lb)
1/56 Stepped up in trip compared to last run.
Only 4 or 5yos win this race as you can see from statistics. 115 from outside that age group have tried to win and failed.
Our idea of the first four looks like this:
1st: SWIFT APPROVAL at 40/1 2nd: FAWAAREQ at 14/1 3rd: STAMP HILL at 50/1 4th: SIR RODERIC at 40/1
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