Sweet Solera Stakes Group 3 (2yos)

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The Sweet Soleral Stakes is named after Sweet Solera and the winner of the 1,000 Guineas and The Oaks in 1961. Originally it was a Listed race but upgraded to Group 3 status in 2004. It is a 7f race for 2yo fillies.

  FANCIED FILLIES' WIN THE SWEET SOLERA!

The Racing Horse is going to select the 1-2-3 of this race and give a detailed explanation as to why. Profiling the race by looking at recent trends is a good place to start. So what do the trends tell us - they tell us it is a great race for favourites. To find a winner bigger than 7/1 in this race you would have to go back to 1997 when Diamond White won at 25/1. Our best advice is to concentrate on the fancied horses and the first four in the market.

TRENDS FOR LAST 13 RUNNINGS

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13/14: Winners from the first three in the betting

13/14: Won just once previously

13/14: Raced in the last 5 weeks

10/13: Unrated winners

 7/13: Favourites won plus one joint-favourite

 7/14: Won at Newmarket (5) or Sandown (2) last time out

 5/13: Won by Godolphin horses (and 5 of the last 8)

 5/13: Had previously won on the course

 3/13 Had won over the same 7f distance

 2/13: Had previously won on the going

 0/13: No winners had previously won at this level

ONLY FOUR OF 22 HAD A RATING PRIOR TO THE RACE

Interesting to note that of the last 22 winners only four had a rating (101, 94, 98 and 95). Most times the winner had just one or two preparation races before this one and only last year's winner Nation Alexander bucked the trend, she had four runs. The draw tells us nothing irrespective of ground conditions and only stall 8 has not won this race in the last 13 years (stall 8 last won in 2002).

THE WINNER TO COME FROM THIS GROUP.

DANCE DIVA at 4/1 has won two from three on good to soft ground and importantly won on the course in a Listed race and it does look as though the 7f will suit her. She must go close. She won her first two starts on raw ability as she was very green and looked a filly going places. Her form reads 1112 and her only defeat was last time out in a Group 3. She has an OR of 100 so meets most of the criteria (had four runs instead of one or two). Poetic Char won her only start but it was at Newmarket. Chris Richardson, managing director of Cheveley Park Stud told us: "Dance Diva is a nice filly and progressive. It's no disgrace to be beaten by Nyaleti, but the draw is a problem in this race as it might leave her out on a wing. She is in good order." The comment about the draw is absolute nonsense and over 7f there is every chance she can get a good pitch under Silvestre De Sousa.

POETIC CHARM at 4/1 won her only start but it was at Newmarket in a Class 4 Maiden. The daughter of Dubawi overcame trouble to win and had something in hand at the line. She has plenty of scope to progress and rates very smart. After her race trainer Charlie Appleby said: "I have been lighter on the fillies and they have taken a while to come to hand. She has been working nicely. She travelled well and picked up well." The soft ground is the main concern. Her sire Dubawi won two of his five races on good to soft and won another at the Curragh on yielding ground but her dam Speirbhean won her only race on good ground and we remember her trainer saying that she did not handle the soft at Cork earlier in her season .Charlie Appleby, trainer: "Poetic Charm came out of her debut well and the form of that race looks strong. We have a couple of drying days in Newmarket, so I'm anticipating the ground will not be too soft. I'm hopeful she can take the next step up in grade."

MAYYASAH at 11/2 won her sole race in a fair juvenile fillies' contest at Newbury in a Class 4 Maiden. She looks to have a future but her sire only raced on fast ground in the USA whilst her dam floundered on soft ground at Chantilly. We cannot explain Richard Hannon's comments about the ground however: "She's making a big step up in class but she was very impressive that day. She's a lovely filly with plenty of scope and seems to have improved from that run. She also shouldn't mind the ground and will be right there on the line."

CAPLA TEMPTRESS at 8/1 only has an OR of 87 and that does not look good enough here. She won second time out at Newmarket on soft ground so that might give her a squeak. Her win was in a competitive race and they finished strung out and it was clearly a step forward. She looks booked for fourth or fifth place without winning. Marco Botti, trainer: "We think she's progressing and I'm pleased with the way she has come out of her last run. It looks a tough race but she's run well at the course and the ground should suit her."

TAJAANUS at 8/1 has raced three times on good to soft ground and two of those at Newmarket. She has won on the course but beaten by Dance Diva when short of room on another occasion. Her last run and win was at Sandown over today's distance and she enjoyed the step up in distance getting the trip well. Richard Hannon thought she was unlucky against Dance Diva on her previous run, he said: " We decided against Royal Ascot which has been to our advantage. She always travels well but takes a while to pick up. She has always been a lovely filly but carries a bit of condition - I always wonder after taking the sheet off her whether I have done enough with her." She has an OR of 97 and with ground to suit and proven over the distance and at 8/1 she must be the call and represents a fabulous each way bet! If she does not win she must go close! Richard Hannon: " She seems to be improving with every run and she will not mind the ground. The form has been franked from her last start and she remains in great order, I would expect a bold run." 

 

Clearly the value is with Tajaanus and it is hard to imagine her not in the first three and the 8/1 with Unibet (06.17) will surely be snapped up early this morning. Had we priced her up our best price would be closer to 11/2. Here is our idea of the result:

1st Tajaanus 8/1

2nd Dance Diva 4/1f

3rd Poetic Charm 9/2

SWEET SOLERA RESULTS SINCE 2005

Year Horse Jockey Trainer Odds OR
2005 Nasheej P Dobbs R Hannon Snr 4/1 -
2006 English Ballet M Hills B W Hills 7/2 -
2007 Albabilia R Moore C Brittain 7/2 -
2008 Rainbow View J Fortune J Gosden 6/4f -
2009 Long Lashes T Durcan S bin Suroor 2/1f -
2010 White Moonstone F Dettori S bin Suroor 11/4jf -
2011 Discourse F Dettori M Al Zarooni 5/2f -
2012 Certify M Barzalona M Al Zarooni 11/8f -
2013 Ihtimal W Buick S bin Suroor 11/4f 94
2014 Muraaqaba D O'Neill M Johnston 7/1 -
2015 Blue Bayou D O'Neill B Meehan 7/4f -
2016 Nations Alexander P Dobbs R Hannon 4/1 101
Today's Pacafi: click here

 Disclaimer
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