No one has all the answers
The Racing Horse believes that no one has all the answers when it comes to winning from betting. In some areas there are no concrete answers to be had. Furthermore, in a subject matter which is totally subjective our lifetime experience is once you think you have the game beat you get a kicking in the proverbial. For what it's worth here is our opinion on two key areas of betting.
Set-aside bank and staking plan absolutely essential!
Two things we do know is those who are serious about betting should have a set-aside bank and a staking plan that suit the personality of the user. No two people on earth bet exactly the same. Every successful bettor has a set-aside bank and understands its preservation is paramount. Conversely, in a worst case scenario, they also understand they must be comfortable about losing that bank. This investment bank will accurately measure success or failure at betting and reduce emotional attachment from your betting decisions. Unfortunately/foolishly most place random bets using money from their overall finances, this invites high risk factors meaning they will never be able to determine how successful their betting strategy actually is.
Keeping records is non-negotiable
Every bettor will have a different mental approach to the game but keeping records is an essential requisite to those that are serious about making pay. It assists the betting process offering stark reminders of where profits and losses lie and, retrospectively logs and describes an historic road map of where you have been. Regarding those who do not keep records we all know that the average bettor tends to forget losses, sometimes accidentally, but play up winnings which only compounds the problem.
Assigning unit stakes to the operation/business helps the bettor be more disciplined and these units are referred to as points.
Edge, Value and Staking
A staking plan or staking strategy is the method of defining how much of your bank you should be investing on a particular wager. Having an edge/value in any wager is essential and how you then stake your money on this wager critical. Most professionals vary their stake based on how confident they are on their selection, or how 'wrong' the price is. The bigger the difference between the price secured and the one offered by the bookmaker determines the size of the edge. Contrariwise, haphazard staking with no edge is just about the quickest way to the poor house!
A common misconception
A staking plan is a calculation of your stake with the aim of maximising profit or minimising risk, however a plan cannot do both. For example, a staking plan which maximises profit will by its very nature increase the risk of losing more money and visa-versa. It is the bettor's responsibility to learn to identify, assess and mitigate the perils associated with their betting strategy through effective risk management. A common misconception is that some staking strategies, in particular the progressive plans, can turn a loss-making entity into profitable ones. This is impossible and represents a misunderstanding of the mathematical principles that underlie such strategies.
Little logic behind a level stake approach?
Regarding our own operation we advise Pacafi selections to 1pt level stake on perceived value nominations. Level stake betting neither maximises nor minimises risk. Many believe that there is little logic behind a level stake approach and we are sympathetic to those comments but it does form the benchmark against which all others should be compared in regard to profitability and risk evaluation.
Betting with a no risk mentality suits the author
Some have been quick to remind us that our mode of betting is too safe and boring but we have always preferred natural and incremental growth under the protection of a NO RISK umbrella. Once our bank passes certain thresholds we are able to increase stakes. On a personal note betting as a percentage of capital suits us best.
Strategies that makes profit to level stakes are the real deal
If a strategy can make a profit to level stakes, as in our bandwidth, then it is the real deal. Better still, if the strategy inherently carries an average 57% strike-rate, it eradicates those long debilitating losing runs that decimates the individual and betting bank. Naturally, one must always be sceptical of level staking results on a small sample but our sample size is huge (over hundreds and hundreds of bets), so above reproach.
Percentage of the bank staking
Our strategy makes a profit on the back of a high strike-rate and clearly suited to a progressive staking plan and why we use percentage of the bank staking. We also recalculate as the bank grows. We also look out for 'stand-outs' and give ourself special dispensation to raise stakes. It serves our betting mentality, which is not to say it would suit everyone nor would we recommend or advise it.
Three levels of confidence with percentage betting?
Generally speaking, percentage staking does not take into account how confident the bettor is about the bet so in a perfect world an adjustment to take into account the confidence could/should be made. One way is to have three levels of confidence and add those percentage points to the bet. We have a friend of the site who bets professionally (uses the Pacafi as part of a portfolio) and he prefers a graded three-pronged approach. His base bet is 3%, his standard is 4% and his maximum/best bet is 5% and this approach serves him well and something we have personally considered.
The percentage of the bank staking still comes in for criticism but worth remembering there is no danger of losing the bank and our mantra/comfort zone is one of NO RISK and something we are naturally comfortable with.
No staking plan can turn bad value selections into winning ways
We bet for a regular wage that compliments a small pension. We are not experts in this field but without an edge no betting system will be successful. We also know that no staking plan or system can turn bad value selections into winning ways. We also know that aggressive staking will ultimately fail and in any case it would introduce stress, nerves and anxiety into one's life and who needs that?
The Racing Horse uses profits for 2017 Melbourne Cup Festival
It must be a good idea to reassess a staking plan every now and then and one might choose to withdraw profits and start again with a new figure. For example, when we finish a system we use the profits on a lifestyle choice. Our Godolphin and Saeed bin Suroor Systems have paid for our 2017 Melbourne Cup Festival trip in November whilst the original bank remains set-aside for our next venture.
Never place a random bet
Irrespective of staking plans good or bad the biggest concern is chasing losses, there are always a threat to those who do not use strategies or systems and rely on random wagering which for us, has always been a mistake. Apart from a day out at the races for fun we NEVER place a random bet!
Pacafi and sound rationale offer a great starting point
The Racing Horse's principal remit is to show a member that they can back horses that win close to a 60% strike-rate and make a profit. We achieve that whilst supplying a rationale of why our selection will win and nominating the dangers. It is not possible to lose money over a quarter following our advice. It can fit inside a Pacafi portfolio if one appreciates that most of the nominations shorten in price making it ideal for trading, that most finish first or second, making it an excellent forecast tool and great for laying second-favourites that our bet beats. The rationale specifically says why our nomination will win and at the very least offers a good starting point/argument regarding the race involved.
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Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.