Ascot Races – Saturday 7th October 2017

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Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

The Racing Horse offers some trends and statistics for Ascot on Saturday and these must help the reader filter those leading contenders from the also rans. We use these trends to find the best profiles of recent winners and will take a close look at the racing and post our 1-2-3 on Friday night once we know the state of the ground and which trainers have their horses in form. We note Friday looks a fine day and Saturday, though cloudy, looks dry also so good to soft ground expected at this time. Please return for a comprehensive update...

1.50 Ascot: Hope And Homes For Children Rous Stakes (Listed Race) ITV4

13/13: Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
13/13: Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/13: Won over 5f before
11/13: Rated 101 or higher
10/13: Aged 5yo or younger
.9/13: Had won between 3-7 times before
.8/13: Yet to win at Listed or better class
.8/13: Unplaced last time out
.6/13: Raced at Newbury last time out
.5/13: Irish bred
.3/13: Trained by Bryan Smart
.2/13: Won last time out
.1/13: Winning favourites

9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 10 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

John Gosden told us: "Waady ran a great race to be fourth in a Group 3 at Newbury the other day and should go well again as he's still a fresh horse."



2.25 Ascot: Gigaset Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) 1m4f ITV4

15/15: Finished fourth or better last time out
13/15: Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/15: Had won over 1m4f before
13/15: Aged 3 or 4yo
13/15: Placed favourites
12/15: Won at Listed or better class before
12/15: Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/15: Had 5 or more runs that season
10/15: Had raced at the course before (5 won)
10/15: Won last time out
9/15: Had won 4 or more times before
8/15: Favourites to win
6/15: Raced at Doncaster last time out
5/15: Trained by Marcus Tregoning
2/15: Ridden by Martin Dwyer
1/15: Filly or mare winners

The last 9 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/4
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

Andre Fabre said: "He is training well and went to Maisons-Laffitte for a gallop 10 days ago. Obviously he might need the run on soft ground but he has freshness and ability in his favour."



3.00 Ascot: John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) 6f ITV4

9/9: Won over 6f previously
9/9: Officially rated 100 or higher
8/9: Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
8/9: Won 4 or more times previously
7/9: Had run within the last 30 days
6/9: Aged 3 or 4yo
6/9: Raced 6 or more times that season
5/9: Won their previous race
3/9: Returned a double-figure price
2/9: Raced at the Curragh last time out
2/9: Favourites to win9 Previous runnings

Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 4 of the last 6 runnings (2 wins)
Horses from stall 5 and 7 have won 4 of the last 6 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 8/1

Charlie Appleby, trainer: "Blue Point has come forward since his run at Haydock. He had a break during the summer, when he probably did a bit too well, and got a bit tired in the testing conditions last time out. If he can he repeat the form of his previous Ascot performances he is going to take all of the beating."



3.35 Ascot: totescoop6 Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4

13/15: Won between 2 and 4 previous races
12/15: Won over 7f previously
10/15: Carried 9st 1lbs or less in weight
10/15: Had raced within the last 30 days
10/15: Aged 3 or 4yo
10/15: Raced at Ascot previously
9/15: Raced 7 or more times that season
7/15: Carried 8st 12lbs or less in weight
7/15: Returned a double-figure price
5/15: Raced at Ayr last time out
4/15: Favourites to win
2/15: Trained by Roger Charlton
2/15: Trained by Mick Channon
2/15: Won their previous race
0/15: Filly or mare winners

6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 9 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
4 of the last 9 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 14/1
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

Karl Burke, trainer: "Mjjack goes there in great form on what's he's done there the last twice and obviously he loves the track. The plan would be to race handy, but he doesn't have to lead."




The Ascot course is a large galloping track of 14 furlongs circumference with a 2.5 Furlong run in. Races shorter than a mile are normally run on the straight course. Nowadays the ground in the straight drains quicker than the rest of the course so going descriptions can vary. The racing surface was re-laid during the redevelopment of 2005, together with the course configuration being altered slightly. Our analysis indicates that this re-configuration has meant that hold up horses have been heavily favoured.


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