Saturday’s Racing (21st October 2017)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

The Racing Horse offers some trends and statistics for Ascot on Saturday and these must help the reader filter those leading contenders from the also-rans.

1.25 Ascot: 2m Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup Group 2 (3yo+)

13/15: Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15: Won at Listed or better class previously
12/15: Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or less
11/15: Aged 5yo or older
10/15: Returned 9/2 or shorter
10/15: Favourites placed
10/15: Raced at least 5 times that season
10/15: Won over at least 2 miles on the flat previously
10/15: Won at least 5 times previously
..8/15: Raced at Longchamp (3), Ascot (2) or Doncaster (3) last time out
..6/15: Favourites that won (1 joint)
..7/15: Won their latest race
..4/15: Irish-trained winners


Sheikhzayedroad (11/1) won the race in 2016
Since 2011: 5 of the last 6 winners came from stalls 2-4 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 7 have been placed in 3 of the last 5
The average winning odds in the last 11 runnings is 11/2
Note: From 2010 back the race was run at Newmarket

TIMEFORM VIEW: Though he was beaten at short odds in this race 12 months ago, it is hard to see past Order Of St George once more this time around. On the back of his Irish St Leger success he was a solid fourth in the Arc 3 weeks ago and can justify his position at the head of the market. Stradivarius, Big Orange and last year's winner Sheikhzayedroad all have solid place claims.

***

2.00 Ascot: 6f Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes Group 1 (3yo+)

15/15: Won over 6f previously
14/15: Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15: Raced at least 4 times that season
14/15: Returned 12/1 or shorter
14/15: Won at least 3 times previously
13/15: Won at Listed or better class previously
12/15: Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/15: Raced at Ascot previously (3 won)
11/15: Won a Group race previously
11/15: Finished in the top 4 in their latest race
10/15: Favourites placed
..9/15: Raced at Haydock (5), Goodwood (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
..4/15: Won their latest race
..4/15: Favourites that won


The Tin Man (13/2) won the race in 2016
Since 2011: 4 of the last 6 winners have come from stalls 12 (2) or 14 (2)
Since 2011: 4 of the last 6 winners came from double-figure stalls
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 12 placed 4 of the last 6 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 14 placed 4 of the last 6 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 13/2
Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

TIMEFORM VIEW: The 3yo sprinters this season look an exceptional bunch and HARRY ANGEL is taken to make it 2-1 in his battle with Caravaggio having run a sensational race when winning the Haydock Sprint Cup in the mud last month. He's one of the best we've seen for a while in this division and can land a third Group 1 in a row. Last year's winner The Tin Man is primed for a big run again at an each-way price.

***

2.40 Ascot: 1m4f Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes Group 1 (3yo+)  

9/9: Raced 3 or more times that season
8/9: Won over 1m4f previously
8/9: Won at Listed or better class previously
7/9: Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
7/9: Returned 6/1 or shorter
7/9: Won at least 3 times previously
7/9: Raced within the last 9 weeks
6/9: Rated 110 or higher
5/9: Favourites placed
5/9: Aged 3yo
5/9: Won their last race
2/9: Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/9: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/9: Favourites that won


The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1
Journey (4/1) won the race 12 months ago
Note: The 2009 & 2010 renewals were run at Newmarket

TIMEFORM VIEW: BATEEL was well behind Journey in this race 12 months ago, but she's an improved model this season and outpointed John Gosden's charge in decisive fashion at Chantilly last time. While Journey is entitled to be sharper this time (she was returning from a 10-week break that day), Bateel could still be improving and is taken to emerge on top once again. Coronet and Hydrangea also enter calculations.

***

3.15 Ascot: 1m Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Group 1 (3yo+)

15/15: Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out
15/15: Returned 7/1 or shorter
15/15: Raced at least 3 times that season
15/15: Aged 3 or 5yo
14/15: Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
13/15: Finished in the top three in their last race
12/15: Favourites placed
11/15: Raced within the last 4 weeks
..9/15: Raced at Ascot previously (5 won)
..8/15: Won their latest race
..8/15: Won at least 7 times previously
..7/15: Raced at Goodwood last time out
..7/15: Favourites that won
..4/15: Trained by Aidan O’Brien
..2/15: Ridden by Frankie Dettori


Minding (7/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/4
Since 2011: Horses from stall 2 and 7 have won 4 of the last 6 runnings
Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

TIMEFORM VIEW: RIBCHESTER has 3 Group 1 wins to his name already this year, including over C&D, and can underline his status as Europe's top miler by going one better than in this race 12 months ago. Beat The Bank's latest romp in a Newmarket Group 2 suggests he's more than ready for the highest level and he could be the one to give Richard Fahey's charge most to do ahead of dual Guineas winner Churchill.

***

3.50 Ascot: 1m2f Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) Group 1 (3yo+)

15/15: Won at least 4 times previously
14/15: Won between 4 and 8 times previously
14/15: Aged 5yo or younger
14/15: Finished in the top 3 in their latest race
13/15: Won over 1m2f previously
13/15: Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
11/15: Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/15: Aged 3 or 4yo
11/15: Raced 5 or more times that season
..9/15: Won their last race
..7/15: Raced at either Longchamp (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
..6/15: Favourites unplaced
..6/15: Returned a double-figure price
..4/15: Won by a French-based trainer
..3/15: Ridden by Tom Queally
..3/15: Favourites


Almanzor (11/8 fav) won the race 12 months ago
Since 2011: Horses from stall 5 have won 2 of the last 4 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 7/1

TIMEFORM VIEW: BARNEY ROY and Cracksman look the pair to focus on. The latter continues to go from strength to strength and any rain will be in his favour as he drops back in trip, but Barney Roy has proven high-class form at this distance so makes more appeal at the prices. Poet's Word ran a cracker when a close second in the Irish Champion at Leopardstown and rates the pick of the older brigade.

***

ASCOT CONFIGURATION

The Ascot course is a large galloping track of 14 furlongs circumference with a 2.5 Furlong run in. Races shorter than a mile are normally run on the straight course. Nowadays the ground in the straight drains quicker than the rest of the course so going descriptions can vary. The racing surface was re-laid during the redevelopment of 2005, together with the course configuration being altered slightly. Our analysis indicates that this re-configuration has meant that hold up horses have been heavily favoured.

PACAFI to RETURN on 1st DECEMBER 2017

Please note that the Pacafi will be returning on the 1st December 2017 and any former member will be invited to have a FREE TRIAL with us to witness our new look. If anyone has any questions on any subject please contact paulmoon@theracinghorse.co.uk and we will do our best to answer. Apart from the Pacafi we will be running four systems and have daily information on each of them.

Today's Pacafi: click here
 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Delicious
  • LinkedIn
  • StumbleUpon
  • Add to favorites
  • Email
  • RSS

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *