2017 Racing Post Trophy

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Racing Post Trophy is run over a distance of 1m and attracts some of the UK’s leading trainers and horses. It is the last Group 1 race of the season and attracts the best 2yos in the country, including several horses aimed at next years Epsom Derby. Established in 1961, five winners have subsequently achieved victory in the following year’s Epsom Derby. The first was Reference Point (1986-87) and the most recent was Camelot (2011-12). Here are the trends:

4.00 Doncaster: 1m (Str) Racing Post Trophy Stakes Group 1 (2yo)


13/15: Foaled in February or later
13/15: Had won either 1 or 2 races before
13/15: Placed favourites
12/15: Finished in the top two last time out
12/15: Raced within the last month
10/15: Winning favourites
10/15: Foaled in either Feb or March
10/15: Had raced at least twice previously
10/15: Won their last race
..9/15: Ran at either the Curragh (3) or Newmarket (6) last time out
..5/15: Won by an Irish-based yard
..4/15: Won by a Montjeu-bred colt
..4/15: Trained by Aidan O’Brien
..4/15: Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
..3/15:  Went onto win the Epsom Derby
..1/15: Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas
..1/15: Went onto win the St Leger

It is worth looking at the winners of the last eight runnings and seven of them have returned at less than 7/2 and six favourites have won.

2016: Rivet (11/4)
2015: Marcel (33/1)
2014: Elm Park (13/8 fav)
2013: Kingston Hill (7/2 fav)
2012: Kingsbarns (15/8 fav)
2011: Camelot (10/11 fav)
2010: Casamento (2/1 fav)
2009: St Nicholas Abbey (13/8 fav)


Five winners have gone onto win the following season’s Epsom Derby
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 7 times: 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011 & 2012
The average SP in the last 15 runnings is 7/1

***

Aidan O'Brien looking for win number 26 with Saxon Warrior

Saxon Warrior looked special when winning on debut at The Curragh

Saxon Warrior and The Pentagon, who head the betting market for the 2018 Derby, are likely runners in the Racing Post Trophy. Victory in the race would lift the Ballydoyle trainer above the late Bobby Frankel’s record for number of Group One wins in a year. O'Brien drew level on 25 at Ascot on Saturday when Hydrangea won the Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes.

In August the trainer told us: "Saxon Warrior looks a very smart colt. He was just ready to come racing and when Donnacha pulled him out he said he took off, he really quickened and was very impressive. He's a big powerful horse. The dam was very good." and then in September he said: "We were a bit worried about the ground and Ryan confirmed that it wasn't ideal for Saxon Warrior but he was impressed with him and said he travelled strongly and quickened well. He said he has plenty of pace. He's a Classic horse for next year. He doesn't have to have another run this season." Both wins for this January foaled Deep Impact colt came on yielding and soft ground and he is currently on offer at 9/4 generally.

Doncaster configuration

Doncaster Racecourse was redeveloped in 2005, however the racing surface remains virtually the same. It is a large pear shaped course of nearly two miles with a long four and a half furlong straight. There is a perfectly straight mile on which a lot of the races are run. The course is very flat and is probably one of the fairest in the country. It definitely suits a horse that can gallop.

The Racing Horse will update this piece on Friday night once we know the runners, ground conditions and the draw, please return...

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