Kings Inn

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse is proud to announce the purchase of shares in a horse trained by Paul Nicholls and we hope this to be first of a number.

KINGS INN

Kings Inn is a very athletic 3yo gelding, who showed great promise on his only Flat start to date, when finishing runner-up in a one mile maiden in August. He showed an excellent attitude that day, staying on really well in the closing stages for an eye-catching debut on soft ground.

Loves his jumping and an exciting prospect - Paul Nicholls

The intention is for Kings Inn to go juvenile hurdling this season and he has already impressed trainer Paul Nicholls in his schooling sessions. Kings Inn is a half-brother to the four-time winner and 102-Flat rated Demons Rock and he looks set to make his mark in the juvenile hurdling division this season. Paul Nicholls told us: "Kings Inn is a lovely horse with a great big stride and lots of scope. He has shown already that he handles soft ground, which will be a help, and he loves his jumping. He's an exciting prospect."

MAWATHEEQ (Sire)

So what else do we know about Kings Inn? His sire is Mawatheeq. He was a high-class 1m to 1m4f winner as a 3 & 4yo, unraced as a 2yo, and was formerly trained by Marcus Tregoning for Hamdan Al Maktoum. He only raced 9 times but won 4 of those and was placed second on two occasions winning £147,418 in prize money. This son of Danzig won two of his three races at Ascot, was 1-1 at Doncaster and 1-1 on the Newmarket July course. All of those wins were on good to fast ground (Best RPR 122). He won the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot over the 1m4f but his best performance was in the Group 1 Champion Stakes over 1m2f when finishing second to Twice Over. He required two handlers in the paddock and was reluctant to load into the stalls, found it difficult to go the early pace but was reeling in Twice Over at the line and was only beaten a neck.

AFNOON (Dam)

The dam is Afnoon and she is out of Street Cry (Best RPR 74). Afnoon was raced just 7 times and won her maiden in a class 5 over the 7f as a 2yo on good ground. She had only beaten one rival home in a 17-runner maiden over the course and distance before that so showed significant improvement. Subsequently she raced four consecutive times at Newmarket finishing third on two occasions. She had been trained by John Dunlop for Hamdan Al Maktoum.

Figures augur well...

As we go to post the trainer has made his customary good start to the season and has recorded 43 winners from 125 runners for a big 34% strike-rate. Throughout the season his hurdlers return 24% though over the past five years his novice jumpers show 293-896 for 33%. These figures augur well for Kings Inn and we are certain the trainer will win with him this winter. Our only problem is if the trainer finds a race for him in November we will not be able to see him run because of our trip to Australia...

The Showcase Meeting

As regards the Showcase Meeting on Friday and Saturday the trainer is a stand-out. He has 8 more winners than his nearest rival Nigel Twiston-Davies. He's had 11 more winners than Henderson, O'Neill and Hobbs and three more than that trio combined. The Showcase statistics for Nicholls are 15 winners from 42 runners for a 36% strike-rate and a level stake profit of +18.44pts. If we wanted to improve our profits then backing those with 1-8 starts in the UK show 12 winners from just 22 runners for 55% and a profit of +29.45pts. 

Our advice is to back Movewiththetimes 2.35 at 7/4 (Bet365), Black Corton 3.45 at 5/1 (Bet365) and Dreamcatching 5.30 at 11/2 (general).

 ***

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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