Saturday’s Racing

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

There is some fabulous racing today but the ground is of some concern. GOING at AINTREE: Mildmay & Hurdle courses - SOFT (Heavy in places); National course - HEAVY (Soft in places) (PRECAUTIONARY INSPECTION 8.30AM SATURDAY) (GoingStick: Mm/Hdl 5.0, Nat 4.0) (Rail movements; R1 & 5 +105y, R2 +100y, R3 +140y, R4 & 7 +25y, R6 +135y) (Showers).

SANDOWN: GOOD TO SOFT (GoingStick: Chs 6.3, Hdl 6.4) (SECOND INSPECTION 10AM SATURDAY) (Mostly sunny).

1.30 Aintree: 3m 2f Randox Health Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

12/15: Carried 10st 12lbs or less
12/15: Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
11/15: Aged 9yo or older
11/15: Officially rated between 123-138
11/15: Irish bred winners
11/15: Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/15: Had no more than 1 start that season
10/15: Had raced at Aintree before
10/15: Had raced within the last 7 weeks
10/15: Had run over these Grand National-style fences before
..9/15: Returned a double-figure price in the betting
..9/15: Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
..6/15: Ran in the previous season’s Grand National
..6/15: Placed favourites
..3/15: Trained by Paul Nicholls
..3/15: Irish-trained winners
..3/15: Won last time out
..3/15: Winning favourites
..2/15: Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
..2/15: Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
..0/15: Went onto win the Grand National that same season

The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 14/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 5 times since 1993

RATIONALE: As we go to post it is obvious our first thoughts are horses carrying less than 10st 12lbs and 9yo or older that has won over fences at 3m. It is also advantageous to have run at Aintree before and have an OR between 123 and 138. With showers predicted we can assume the ground will be closer to heavy than soft and it will be hard work and we can forget good ground horses in regards to winning.

SELECTION: Highland Lodge 9/1 (general 08.41)

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1.45 Sandown: 2m randoxhealth.com Henry V111 Novices Chase (Grade 1) 

14/14: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/14: Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/14: Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
13/14: Had won a UK chase race over at least 2m
13/14: Aged 6yo or younger
12/14: Won last time out
12/14: French (8) or Irish (4) bred
11/14: Placed favourites
11/14: Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14: Winners that went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (2 winners)
..9/14: Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
..9/14: Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
..7/14: Winning favourites (1 joint)
..5/14: Trained by Paul Nicholls
..5/14: Winners went onto finish 1st or 2nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
..2/14: Ridden by Ruby Walsh

The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

SELECTION: Brain Power at 13/8 (general 08.42)

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2.05 Aintree: 2m 1f Download The App At 188bET Fillies' Junvenile Hurdle (Listed)

5/5: Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
5/5: Placed in the top 4 last time out
5/5: Won between 0-1 times over hurdles
4/5: Ran in the last 4 weeks
4/5: Winning distance 8 or more lengths
4/5: Winning favourites
4/5: Carried 10st 12lbs in weight
2/5: Trained by Alan King
2/5: Irish-trained winners
2/5: Won last time out

The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 2/1 (just 5 runnings of this race)

SELECTION: Malaya at 8/11 (general 08.42)

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2.20 Sandown Jumeirah Hotels and Resorts Handicap Hurdle (Listed)

13/14: Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/14: Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
12/14: Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14: Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/14: Aged 4, 5 or 6yo
11/14: Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
10/14: Winning distance – 1 length or more
10/14: Carried 10st 13lbs or less
..9/14: Rated between 116-128
..8/14: Won last time out
..8/14: Unplaced favourites
..8/14: Irish bred
..4/14: Trained by Nicky Henderson
..3/14: Winning favourites (1 joint)
..2/14: Ridden by Ruby Walsh

The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 13/2

SELECTION: Fidux at 11/2 (general 08.43)

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2.35 Aintree: 3m 1f Mildmay 188bet.co.uk Many Clouds Chase (Grade 2)

6/6: Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/6: Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
5/6: Won no more than 3 times over fences
5/6: Aged 8yo or younger
5/6: Had raced over fences at Aintree before
4/6: Ran at Aintree (2) or Wetherby (2) last time out
3/6: Winning favourites
3/6: Having their seasonal reappearance
1/6: Irish-trained winners
1/6: Won last time out

Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 & 2014
Nicky Henderson won the race in 2011
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 5/2 (just 6 runnings of this race)

SELECTION: Definitly Red at 15/8 (general 08.44)

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2.55 Sandown: Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1)

14/15: Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15: Aged 9yo or younger
13/15: Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/15: Had won a Grade One chase before
12/15: Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
12/15: Officially rated 165 or higher
11/15: Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
11/15: Placed favourites
11/15: Aged between 5-8yo
10/15: Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/15: Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/15: French bred
11/15: Had won at least 4 times over fences before
..9/15: Winning favourites (2 joint)
..8/15: Won last time out
..8/15: Trained by Paul Nicholls
..8/15: Had won a chase race at Sandown before
..4/15: Ridden by Ruby Walsh
..3/15: Ridden by Barry Geraghty

The average winning SP in the last 15 years was 5/2

SELECTION: Fox Norton at 8/13 (general 08.45)

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3.10 Aintree: 2m 5f Grand National 188Bet Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Class 2)

11/12: Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
10/12: Aged 8yo or older
10/12: Rated 124 or more
..9/12: Had raced within the last 4 weeks
..9/12: Had run at Aintree before (4 over the GN style fences)
..8/12: Irish bred
..8/12: Had won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
..7/12: Carried 10st 12lbs or more
..6/12: Returned a double-figure price
..5/12: Finished in the top 4 last time out
..3/12: Winning favourites
..2/13: Trained by Paul Nicholls
..1/12: Won last time out
..1/12: 
Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (5th)


9 of the last 11 winners were aged 8 or 9yo
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/1

RATIONALE: For the Grand Sefton we are looking for a horse that has won between 1 and 4 previous chase wins, aged 8yo or older and rated 124 or more. Those acquainted with the fences do best and they would have had a run in the past 4 weeks.

SELECTION: Rathlin Rose at 17/2 (Unibet and 888bpg 08.50)

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3.30 Sandown: 3m 5f Betfair London National Handicap Chase (Class 2

13/13: Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/13: Aged 7yo or older
12/13: Won between 2-6 times over fences before
12/13: Had won (fences) over at least 3m before
11/13: Rated 126 or higher
11/13: Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/13: Aged 8yo or older
..9/13: Unplaced favourites
..9/13: Finished in the top 4 last time out
..8/13: Irish bred
..8/13: Carried 11st or more
..7/13: Had raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
..4/13: Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Towcester (2) last time out
..4/13: Won last time out
..3/13: Ridden by Richard Johnson
..3/13: Trained by Tom George
..1/13: Winning favourites


The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 13/2

SELECTION: Doing Fine at 5/1 (SkyBet & Betbright 08.50)

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Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

 Today's Pacafi: click here

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