More Trends for Saturday

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

The going at Cheltenham today is soft with good to soft in places and that is a relief especially after the November debacle when racing was allowed to take place on gluepot conditions, which directly led to the death of four horses! If the racing conditions are unfit for racing then there should be no racing, the horses and safety must always come first, irrespective of sponsors, racegoers or whether the meeting is popular or not! Our sport should not arm the enemies of horse racing or its detractors...

The good news is The Racing Horse has more trends to help us find those winners at Cheltenham and selected three likely types. We need one winner to return our stakes but two will give us a nice profit - if all three win we have a 66/1 win treble!


1.55 Cheltenham: 2m 5f Caspian Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3)

15/15: Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/15: Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15: Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
12/15: Had won between 2-4 times over fences before
11/15: Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
10/15: Had raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (4 won)
10/15: Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15: Officially rated 142 or higher
..9/15: Unplaced favourites
..9/15: Aged 6 or 7yo
..9/15: French bred
..7/15: Carried 10st 13lbs or more
..5/15: Ran at Cheltenham last time out
..5/15: Ran in the BetVictor (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
..4/15: Finished in the top 5 in the Bet Victor Gold Cup last time out
..4/15: Won last time out
..4/15: Trained by Paul Nicholls
..3/15: Trained by Nicky Henderson
..2/15: Went to an Irish-trained horse
..1/15: Winning favourites

The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

Having saddled four of the last eight winners, anything that Paul Nicholls runs in this warrants a second look. The Ditcheat handler has three entered this year with last month’s Haydock winner Clan Des Obeaux likely to head the market. Le Prezien was among a posse of these who chased home Splash of Ginge in the BetVictor Gold Cup here last month on the Old Course. Starchitect, Ballyalton and Romain De Senam also finished close up in that event and they are closely matched again but Foxtail Hill probably has a bit to find. King's Odyssey was tracking the leaders and still going well when falling in this last year. He is 7lb lower now and has won on the track before. A run at Carlisle over a trip too short will have cleared the airwaves and Evan Williams’ charge is a potential blot on the handicap but Deauville Dancer will need a career-best effort to figure in a race like this.

SELECTION: King's Odyssey at 15/2 (general 08.42)


2.30 Cheltenham: Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2)

13/13: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/13: Placed favourites
12/13: Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13: Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/13: Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13: Aged 6yo or younger
11/13: Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
10/13: Winning favourite (1 co, 1 joint)
10/13: Went on run in the Albert Bartlett (2 won) at the Cheltenham Festival
..9/13: Ran at Cheltenham last time out
..9/13: Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
..8/13: Won last time out
..8/13: Went onto finish in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
..8/13: Had won at Cheltenham before
..8/13: Won over 3m (hurdles) before
..8/13:  Irish bred
..2/13: Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
..2/13: Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies

The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/8

Kilbricken Storm was struggling to get to Mont Des Avaloirs at Wincanton when the latter came down at the last but he was left well clear. Count Meribel is from last year’s winning stable and has rattled up a hat-trick this season after failing to score in five attempts last term, though does have a small penalty and is upped in trip. Equus Secretus had to be ridden out to beat Another Stowaway at Southwell but was giving the second 7lb so that was a decent effort and there should be more to come on only his third start under Rules. Collateral form gives him the beating of Aye Aye Charlie but Ayr maiden winner Global Stage should enjoy the step up to 3m.

SELECTION: Equus Secretus at 2/1 (general 08.44)


3.05 Cheltenham: Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2)

15/15: Raced over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
14/15: Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15: Placed in the top 3 in their latest race
13/15: Won over 2m1f (hurdles) previously
12/15: Won by a horse aged 7yo or younger
12/15: Ran in the Champion Hurdle later that season (5 placed)
12/15: Won 4 or more times over hurdles previously
11/15: Won their latest race
11/15: Favourites that won (1 joint)
11/15: Favourites placed
11/15: Priced 5/2 or shorter
11/15: Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
..9/15: Won by a horse aged either 4 or 5 years-old
..8/15: Rated 162 or higher
..7/15: Winning distance:  4+ lengths
..6/15: Won the Greatwood Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
..4/15: Won by a French-bred horse
..4/15: Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
..4/15: Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
..3/15: Trained by Philip Hobbs
..3/15: Ridden by jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
..3/15: Trained by Paul Nicholls
..3/15: Won the Betfair Hurdle last time out
..2/15: Won by an Irish-trained horse
..2/15: Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
.,1/15: Won the Champion Hurdle later that season (Rooster Booster 2002)

The New One has won the race in 2013, 2014 and 2016
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 7/2

The evergreen The New One has made this race his own in recent years, winning three of the last four renewals. He didn’t line-up when recent Newbury scorer Old Guard took the honours in 2015 and was giving that rival 14lb when only a length behind in the Greatwood here last month. My Tent Or Yours never seems to run a bad race at the highest level – he’s finished second in the last two Champion Hurdles. But he’s not won since early in 2014 and, along with Old Guard, was beaten fair and square by the selection in this 12 months ago on better terms. Melon was a smart novice last season and made a winning reappearance in a Grade 2 at Down Royal so is respected but Ch'tibello is having a first run since chasing home Yanworth in the Kingwell in February and John Constable steps up from handicaps.

SELECTION: Melon at 2/1 (Coral 08.46)


Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

 Today's Pacafi: click here

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