The Racing Horse is indifferent to the majority of betting advice systems and strategies that come on to the market and advise others to check them out/ask for a free trial before making a purchase. A few deserve scrutiny but the vast majority lie between bogus or not fit for purpose. Some authors/sources deliberately procure false hope whilst others do it unintentionally, others enlist less important or flawed features and give wrong credence to certain aspects. More recently we have seen those that create systems and strategies that seek to complicate in order to raise their own profiles but there are a few that makes a profit.
Essential prerequisites carrying argument weighting are what we require before wagering. The common sense rationale of our Pacafi has stood the test of time and make up the ‘Four Corners’ of our betting slip. This raison d’être was vital in 1950, essential now and will be relevant in 2050. We take this opportunity to herald this lost message and reaffirm those quadri-points in order of importance! They are:
Optimum Ground Conditions
The most important part of any bet ever made is the form of the trainer. The sum of the other parts are not as important and this element remains the cornerstone of any wager.
TRAINER FORM is the MOST IMPORTANT ELEMENT of a BET
Acknowledging trainer statistics and the mathematics that accompany them before making a win single bet is vital. It is a decisively indicative test that removes randomness, opinion and bias, it reveals how well the stable’s horses are currently and delivers an up to the minute litmus test. For us, backing the horses of trainers on the cold list is utter madness and much more sensible/profitable backing trainers who have their horses is good form. We readily accept there are occasions when a trainer's horses are clearly returning to form (without winning) and spot one entered at perceived value and is too big a price to turn down.
SMALL MARGINS DETERMINE RESULTS of MOST RACES
There any amount of random factors that can affect a result and it takes small margins to win most races. These issues are more likely to be compounded if the horse is not fully wound up! Furthermore, if one accepts that handicap racing forms more than half of all races on the cards of UK race meetings a few pounds of improvement or decay can mean the difference between winning and finishing down the field.
EACH HORSE has a POTENTIAL ABILITY LEVEL BUT...
Each horse has a potential ability level, whether they achieve that is another matter. The better the horse is trained and looked after the more it is likely to achieve but it is accepted that genetics and skeletal soundness are factors outside the trainer’s remit. Finding the bandwidth to which each horse can aspire needs the trainer to be totally in tune with his charge and, whilst some achieve most fail in this regard. Based on this incongruity we only trust recent form.
MONTY ROBERTS re OPTIMUM GROUND
We were fortunate to spend the day with Monty Roberts (The Horse Whisperer) and he gave us lots of information on horses and we adhere our betting to his golden principles. He told us that every horse that has ever been born or ever will be born has optimum ground conditions. The onus rests solely on the bettor to find out before making an investment what that is!
SYSTEMS CANNOT COPE with CHANGING GROUND CONDITIONS
Some racing people including trainers, irrationally spew that good horses go on any ground – they do not, some just handle it better or have something in hand of their rivals. A problem for systems is that they are unlikely to recognise/weigh/measure optimum or deteriorating conditions against the class the horses are racing in! It is here where most bets are won and lost.
JOCKEY COMPETENCE is KEY
So our intended wager has a tick in every box and a winning chance looks obvious, why would anyone compromise the bet once the horse arrives at the course after weeks/months of schooling and training? We know that trainers are not duty bound to give the ride to the best jockey available! They might use an apprentice, someone who is contracted, rides work or a favoured son. The owner might have some input or the decision might be political. But the bettor has no such restrictions. It is hard to measure or be scientific about the importance of jockeyship, but they are the trainer’s connection to the horse and it is often their decisions that dictate the result and our profit and loss.
The quadri-points listed probably represent 90%+ in importance towards a winning bet. Of course stable shenanigans, course configuration, draw and track bias, pace in the race, distance, weight, breeding and more can influence the result but the big four represents a core and serious starting point to any bet. This is where we part with most systems and strategies!
We cannot imagine placing a bet without all of the core elements satisfied.
The Racing Horse has reintroduced our Pacafi strategy for 2018 and will offer the strategy with an accompanying rationale to those who request a FREE TRIAL. We welcome back old members especially and look forward to making those incremental profits we are famous for.
Today's Pacafi: click here
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.