Pacafi (6th January 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse nominated our first winner of the year yesterday (with perceived value attached) in Night Of Glory and we are relatively confident of following up with Arcanada 2.20 Lingfield at 5/4 (general - there was little bits of 11/8 available earlier today we could not get on at that price). Because all the bookmakers are offering 5/4 it makes sense to shop around for 11/8 or bigger but we have recorded 5/4 best price guaranteed,

Arcanada top rated with improvement to come on the AW surface

 Arcanada is a winner of five races from 7f to 1m including a win on Polytrack. He returned to winning ways in a Class 2 Handicap over course and distance last time and beat Gabrial in the process. He is expected to go well in a Class 2 Conditions race and can confirm running on these terms. He is top rated yet receives weight from the current second-favourite Straight Right with a promise of more to come on the AW surface.

Showed a decisive turn of foot over course and distance

Looking at the win in some detail it is worth reminding ourselves that the Pacafi was having only his second start on the AW and tried in cheekpieces. He was very well supported before the off and showed why. Always on the shoulder of the leader, he won this with a decisive turn of foot entering the last furlong and looks well worth aiming at more of the better 1m races around here this winter. After the race co-owner Michael Biles told us: "We have found out Arcanada doesn't like right-handed tracks and I presume it was the going at Ascot when he disappointed, He did run well on his only previous run on the AW at Wolverhampton back in 2016."

Trainer form a slight concern but not far away from a winner

It was a fine performance 45 days ago and we feel he can improve again on the AW surface and he has the perfect draw to take a handy pitch early in the race. Martin Harley rides for Tom Dascombe. Trainer form is our starting point when viewing a race and at first glance Dascombe does not qualify for the Pacafi but of his last five runners two of those have finished second at 10/1 and 13/2, another was fourth at 10/1. And although December shows 0-13 he was 2-10 in November. Last January saw him 4-22 for 18% with another four second-places and our bet is known to be in form given his last run. When the trainer combines with Harley they record 4-32 for 13% (+13.30pts). We would have liked to have seen better figures but in the context of this race we are happy with the figures. This is the trainer's only runner today but has a couple entered for the AW next week.

26% for 2017

Lingfield is his 4th best racecourse for winners and the trainer has recorded 21 winners from 123 runners for 17% but 2017 showed him prosper with 8-31 for 26% and he has a course and distance winner running for him.

Just six runners so the race could be tactical

With just six runners things could be tactical and In The Red looks the likely leader so pressing the button at the right time is key. Martin Harley though on the best horse in the race is probably the fourth or fifth best jockey. We imagine Harley having our bet second or close up third before slinging off the final turn and running strong to the line,

Timeform View

ARCANADA won a warm handicap in good style over C&D in November, and that looks form to follow. Gabrial is taken to chase home the selection ahead of Straight Right and My Target

Of his rivals

My Target is entitled to strip fitter for his outing here six days ago, which was his first outing since June, and is expected to take closer order. He rattled-up four consecutive course and distance victories at this time last year. Looks likely to run well without winning.

It would be disappointing if there wasn't better to come from Straight Right, who is penalised but ran very well in a valuable 7f Goodwood handicap in the summer and was outpaced over 6f at Kempton last time. Straight Right has raced over shorter trips since joining Andrew Balding and may finish closer today given he won over a mile in France earlier this year. Strange that the colt has won over the mile three times for C Ferland in France yet Balding races him over 7f then 6f. This one rates the only real danger and if the betting suggests our Pacafi is weak and not fancied we might employ a saver on this one. Man Of Harlech has something to prove on his first start since 2016 and In The Red has little chance at the weights.

RESULT: This race was a joy because we took the 11/8 and then the race was ran just exactly as we envisaged. Ours led out of the stalls but Harley wisely let In The Red have an uncontested lead to give him a tow, then he was switched right well over 1f out, before asserting and running on well inside the final furlong. The SP was 4/6 once again showing we had found the perceived value and this makes it 2-2 for January.

SELECTIONS: 2 WINNERS: 2 LOSERS: 0 S/R: 100% Profit: +2.04pts

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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