Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
2.40 Kempton: 32Red.com Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle Listed 2m5f ITV4
32/36: Won by 7yo or younger
16/16: Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
15/16: Aged 7yo or younger
15/16: Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/16: Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
13/16: Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16: Had never won a hurdles race over this trip or longer before
11/16: Winning distance 3 lengths or less
11/16: Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16: Winners that ran at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
10/16: Carried 10st 11lbs or less
10/16: Irish (5) or French (5) bred
..9/16: Aged 6yo
..9/16: Placed favourites
..7/16: Won last time out
..5/16: Had run at Kempton before (4 won)
..5/16: Winning favourites
..3/16: Trained by Nick Williams
..3/16: Trained by Paul Nicholls
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007 and the average winning SP of this race in the last 9 runnings is 11/2
Trends that cannot/should not be ignored
There are some trends you cannot ignore and we note all of the last 16 had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before. Then 15 of the last 16 winners are aged 7yo or younger and over the last 36 runnings 32 have won. This looks a great place to start. Nick Williams and Paul Nicholls know how to win this race though the latter has reminded us his horses have just had the flu jab.
Another good renewal of this long-standing handicap and the one that sticks out is RIVER FROST. A course and distance winner, he very much caught the eye on his reappearance at Chepstow in a race that has worked out remarkably well, and his trainer Alan King continues in fine form. Not surprisingly, the shortlist is anything but, with Diese des Bieffes and William Henry high up on it for Nicky Henderson.
The Racing Horse view of the 1-2-3-4 is:
1st Diese Des Bieffes 5/1 2nd Le Patriote 18/1 3rd Dino Velvet 20/1 4th Couer Blimey 14/1
Today's Pacafi: click here
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