Pacafi (13th January 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Yesterday's Result: Mosseyb made encouraging headway after a poor start on debut over 1f shorter at Lingfield eight-weeks beforehand, setting the form standard here with his pre-race RPR of 69. But once again he blew the start and jockey Ben Curtis could not get a hold of him as he refused to settle and pulled too hard. The colt took him right and then left behind the sedate tempo and it was all very disappointing. That said the winner Stone Of Destiny looked very good and even if we had kicked on from Lingfield I am not sure we would have won.

Today there are two Pacafi bets and a National Hunt Winter System selection in Gods Own 2.05 Kempton at 11/4 for our designated trainer Tom George. Results to be updated after today's racing.

We have an interest on Monday with Saeed bin Suroor running Dayking 6.10 Wolverhampton and will post news on Monday night.

Redicean 12.20 Kempton at 4/6 best price guaranteed. 1pt win

Impressive Course and Distance Winner

Redicean won on his latest outing in a hurdle race when the 11/8 favourite over this course and distance on soft ground in December when beating Haulani by 10l. The race was a decent Class 2 juvenile hurdle and they went a proper gallop and there was a very strong headwind in the straight. He was impressive and looks a good thing to follow up.

Triumph horse?

The 85,000 guineas Alan King trained 4yo was hating the soft ground here on debut but still cruised the front and pulled clear of a more experienced rival. He’ll be even better on this slightly better surface and looks a juvenile hurdler to follow. This looks a tougher opposition despite being a Class 4 but the trainer pointed out: "I thought coming here Redicean could be decent. Those weren't ideal conditions for a horse making his jumping debut, so I'm really pleased with what we saw today. I hope we can find a Triumph horse and this one is in the mix. He would need two more runs before Cheltenham for experience, though."

The bet was a borderline decision in that we wanted something closer to 4/5 or even 10/11 so do we have perceived value?

Of his Rivals

Vaziani was also an easy winner at Taunton (beating our horse Kings Inn) last month but is competing off level weights against a potentially smart novice. Kapdad was no match for a stablemate of the selection at Newbury last time but has place claims again. Ray's The Money never won beyond a mile on the Flat and may find conditions too testing.

Timeform View

Useful Flat winner, REDICEAN, impressed with his style of victory when making a winning hurdling debut over C&D last month, and Alan King’s charge seems sure to go on to better things. Kapdad will be winning races over timber sooner rather than later and rates the principal threat.

***

Mr Whipped 3.00 Warwick at 15/8 best price guaranteed. 1pt win

Won both starts over hurdles, imposing sort and sure to improve

Mr Whipped was bought for £160,000 after winning his Irish point in March, and impressive when winning both starts over hurdles. This imposing sort is sure to improve further and could be anything especially when he goes chasing. He was a winner at 7/1 in a hurdle race at Newbury over 2m 4f on soft ground on his latest outing in December beating Gowiththeflow by 3l. After that race Nicky Henderson enthused: "Mr Whipped is still a baby but is going the right way. He's won two so has two penalties and will have to go upstairs now. That was good giving a penalty like that."

Ready for this step up in grade - Nicky Henderson

This week Nicky Henderson told us: "I like Mr Whipped. He did what he had to do at Kempton, which was easy and I was impressed with him at Newbury. It was soft ground there, and he stays the trip. It is a step up in grade but I think he is ready for it! The trainer is in fantastic form this season and shows 85-283 for a massive 30% and three of his last four runners have won at 3/1, 6/4 and 2/1. He excels at Kempton and his figures read 58-211 for 27%.

Of his rivals

Willoughby Court won the Neptune Investment at Cheltenham last year after landing this Grade 2 and The New One is also a recent winner. The latter’s trainer runs Count Meribel with a penalty and he is fancied to go close. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ 6yo was outstayed over 3m at Cheltenham last time but his record over this shorter trip is impressive and he’s an accurate jumper who will love conditions. Nigel Twiston-Davies confirmed: "Count Meribel has done ever so well this season. He seemed to be outstayed at Cheltenham so we're dropping down to two miles and five furlongs. I'm looking forward to the race." Chooseyourweapon also defends an unbeaten record and will love the ground but the Pacafi has the edge on collateral form. Paisley Park was probably a lucky winner at Hereford and has much more to do here but makes more appeal than Wetherby scorer Knight In Dubai and Cave Top, who has only won in handicaps so far.

We have trends on the 2m5f Ballymore Leamington Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2)

11/11: Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/11: Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
11/11: Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
11/11: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/11: Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/11: Came from the top 3 in the betting
..9/11: Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
..7/11: Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
..7/11: Irish bred
..7/11: Won last time out
..5/11: Winning favourites
..5/11: Placed favourites
..5/11: Aged 5yo

The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 4/1 and Mr Whipped ticks all of our boxes!

Timeform View

MR WHIPPED looks an exciting prospect having won both his starts over hurdles so far and appeals as the most likely winner. Count Meribel should be suited by the return to this trip and is feared most.

***

Today's Pacafi:    Redicean 12.20 Kempton at 4/6 (general 20.52 though 8/11 Stan James but not best price guaranteed). Mr Whipped 3.00 Warwick at 15/8 (Boylesports and 7/4 generally 20.51). 1pt win on each

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