Pacafi (16th January 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Yesterday's Result: Frontiersman was returning from an 11-week break since reportedly not appreciating soft ground at Newbury in October. He was making his AW debut, upped significantly in trip, but had upwards of 6lb in hand of this field on the book. He made good, gradual headway through the field but lugged in behind the two principals when asked the serious question over 1f out.

Our bet is the only ride of the day for Noel Fehily. At Kempton later tonight Frankie Dettori goes for just one ride on Dream Mount for Marco Botti and this one currently trades at 11/4, worth a look?

We have just been informed Ayr is off today so no National Hunt Winter System Bet.

Carole's Vigilante 1.25 Hereford at 1/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power and BetVictor 09.03)

Pedigree

E6,000 F, E40,000 3yo; 5th foal; brother to useful bumper/2m2f-2m6f jump winner Kate Appleby Shoes; dam unraced half-sister to winners inc Dr Bones (2m-2m4f hurdle/chase), Stoned Imaculate (2m and 2m1f Flat/2m1f & 3m hurdle) & Spirit of Park (2m hurdle)

Entitled to Improve Massively!

Carole's Vigilante is a 7yo gelding who has just had two career runs. He shaped promisingly on his only bumper start in November 2015, and did the same when sent hurdling after another two years off the track. The son of Flemensfirth ran a really good race behind Oxwich Bay in an above-average 2m4f contest at Ffos Las last month, staying on nicely on heavy ground and is entitled to have come on for the run massively.

Trainer and Jockey Form

The trainer has sent 13 runners to the course in the last five years and won twice for 15% and these are not ideal figures. January shows 3-26 for 12% and below our standard but we do note that a lot of his beaten runners have been big prices and lesser lights and the one joint-favourite sent out won at 5/2. Another of his won at 12/1. His horses are in some form and we have a bit to spare with the selection today. He will be well ridden by Noel Fehily who is in excellent form with 3 winners from his last 7 rides and averaging a strike-rate of over 21% so far this season. Riding for Mulholland they combine with 111-604 for 18%. At Hereford he has great figures of 5-12 for 42%  (+4.06pts) and this is his only ride of the day.

Our feeling is Neil Mulholland is about to explode with winners and he might be worth keeping an eye on...

Of His Rivals

Venetia Williams has two in the race but the interesting one is newcomer Jurys Out, a £20,000 son of Witness Box out of a Supreme Leader mare so bred for the job. Ticket To Ride may improve for his first run for new connections at Taunton but it’s difficult to make a case for many of the others.

Timeform View

This should be a straightforward task for CAROLE'S VIGILANTE having shaped so promisingly after such a long time off when runner-up at Ffos Las on hurdles bow last month. Jurys Out starts his career under Rules in a weak event and is clear pick of the remainder.

***

The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes.

8 Carole's Vigilante  1.50  WIN  1.00  +0.50  +2.08  S/R  63%
7 Frontiersman        2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.58  S/R  57%
6 Mr Whipped          2.87  WIN  1.00  +1.87  +2.58  S/R  67%
5 Redicean            1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +0.71  S/R  60%
4 Mosseyb             1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.04  S/R  50%
3 Jack Of Truth       2.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.04  S/R  67%
2 Arcanada            2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +2.04  S/R 100%
1 Night Of Glory      1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +0.67  S/R 100%

SELECTIONS: 8  WIN: 5  LOSE: 3  S/R: 63%  PROFIT: +2.08pts

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