Sandown Trends (3rd February 2018)

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The Racing Horse offer more key trends to point the reader in the direction of winners, if not, then at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners. ITV will be showing 7 races from Sandown, Wetherby and Musselburgh where the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase will be the feature race at Sandown.

Sandown Park Racecourse Map

The Sandown Park racecourse is an oval shaped course of thirteen furlongs, with a long four furlong finishing straight. The course is quite testing, particularly the last six furlongs which are all uphill. 

1.15 Sandown: Betfred Handicap Chase (Class 2) 1m7f119y

11/11: Priced 10/1 or shorter
11/11: Raced within the last 8 weeks
10/11: Finished in the top 3 last time out
..9/11: Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
..9/11: Aged 9yo or younger
..9/11: Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
..9/11: Raced within the last 4 weeks
..6/11: Winners ran at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
..5/11: Carried 10st 10lbs or less
..5/11: Winners raced season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
..5/11: Came from outside the top 4 in the betting
..5/11: Had run over fences at Sandown before (3 won)
..4/11: Aged 7yo
..4/11: French bred
..4/11: Raced at Sandown last time out
..4/11: Had an official rating of exactly 125
..3/11: Won last time out
..3/11: Trained by Venetia Williams
..3/11: Ridden by Aidan Coleman
..3/11: Winning favourites
..2/11: Trained by Nicky Henderson

The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2

There are some older horses in this race with James Bowen riding Top Gamble riding for Kerry Lee. This one loves the soft ground and looks to be on a good mark of 152 plus the jockey claim. Paul Nicholls runs Dolos and on his Ascot form two starts ago would be a player. Cepage trained by Venetia Williams is only a 6yo but improving when last seen running a close second behind Sir Valentino at Ascot, but was his first run for almost 9 months so will be a lot fitter for it and the soft ground will suit. The winner will come from these three and a bit of creative accounting should ensure a profit.

SELECTIONS 1st:  Cepage  2nd:  Dolos  3rd: Top Gamble

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2.25 Sandown: Betfred Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m4f10y

14/14: Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
14/14: Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/14: Won no more than 3 times over fences before
14/14: Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/14: Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/14: Finished in the top 2 last time out
12/14: Aged 7yo or younger
12/14: Won between 1-3 times over fences before
10/14: Placed favourites
10/14: Winners ran at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (0 winners)
10/14: Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
..9/14: Winning favourites
..8/14: French bred
..6/14: Aged 7yo
..5/14: Irish bred
..5/14: Ran at Cheltenham last time out
..4/14: Trained by Paul Nicholls
..4/14: Had run over fences at Sandown before
..4/14: Trained by Nicky Henderson
..3/14: Winners that went onto finish in the top 5 in the RSA Chase
..3/14: Ridden by Barry Geraghty
..3/14: Ridden by Daryl Jacob (last 3 winners)
..2/14: Ridden by Ruby Walsh


The average winning  SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/4

Kalondra might come up a bit short in this race and best to concentrate on the first two in the betting. Our preference is for the Nicky Henderson trained Terrefort, the trainer said of him: "He went up a stone for that victory at Huntingdon, which was unbelievable, really. If the handicapper's right he has a very good chance." This 5 year-old grey caught the eye on his British debut at Huntingdon when winning by an easy 10 lengths and although more is needed in this better race he’s clearly held in high regard. He’s had 10 runs in France so despite his age does actually have a fair amount of experience. We are just a little nervous of the Paul Nicholls horses at the moment after having their flu jabs but he said of Cyrname: "He's done nothing wrong over fences, and has kept on improving. He deserves to take his chance in this Grade 1, but it looks a tough race." The yard have won the race four times in the last 14 years so clearly know what’s required, while jockey Sean Bowen has ridden him to victory twice in his last three starts.

SELECTIONS 1st:  Terrefort  2nd:  Cyrname  3rd:  Kalondra

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3.00 Sandown: Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m7f98y

12/12: Had run in the last 8 weeks
12/12: Won by a horse aged 9yo or younger
11/12: Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
11/12: Carried 10st 12lbs or less in weight
10/12: Officially rated 135 or lower
10/12: Won between 2-3 times over hurdles previously
..9/12: Winners that went to race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
..9/12: Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
..8/12: Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
..8/12: Priced 13/2 or less
..7/12: Won by a horse aged 7yo or younger
..7/12: Won by an Irish-bred horse
..6/12: Favourites placed
..4/12: Raced over hurdles at Sandown previously (3 won)
..4/12: Won their last race
..4/12: Favourites that won
..4/12: Won by a French-bred horse
..4/12: Raced at Cheltenham last time out
..3/12: Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
..2/12: Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
..2/12: Ridden by Richard Johnson
..1/12: Winners win at Cheltenham Festival (Ryanair Chase, 2007 Taranis)


The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 10/1

Tom Segal said: "The switch to Gordon Elliott seems to have rekindled Folsom Blue's enthusiasm and he stayed on like a lion over a slightly shorter trip in a good race in Ireland last time. Fourth Act is extremely well treated on his best chase form and he beat a good horse with plenty in hand back over hurdles at Fontwell last time." Paul Nicholls 6yo Topofthegame was a close fourth in the Lanzarote Hurdle last time, but is up another 3lbs here and the form of that race has taken a few knocks in recent weeks. He’s sure to be thereabouts, but with just one hurdles win so far might find a few too good again. Once again we are concerned about flu jabs and cannot support that selection. Our view of the winner is Melrose and his trainer Harry Fry told us: "The step up in trip should suit him and we hope he can be very competitive. It's a big prize, he handles conditions and we're looking forward to it. Any rain would be a positive."

SELECTIONS 1st:  Melrose  2nd:  Folsom Blue  3rd:  Topofthegame

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3.35 Sandown: Betfred Mobile Masters Handicap Chase (Class 2) 3m37y

13/14: Carried 11st 5lbs or less
13/14: Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
12/14: Had raced within the last 8 weeks
11/14: Aged 9yo or younger
10/14: Had won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
..9/14: Rated 136 or lower
..8/14: Favourites placed in the top 4
..8/14: Had raced at Sandown before (4 won)
..8/14: Placed last time out
..7/14: Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
..7/14:  Irish-bred
..6/14: Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
..5/14: Winners ran at following Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
..5/14: French-bred
..5/14: Winning favourites
..3/14: Winners finished unplaced in that season’s Grand National
..2/14: Trained by Lucy Wadham (2 of last 4)
..2/14:  Trained by Venetia Williams (2 of last 4)

The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

The Lucy Wadham and Venetia Williams yards has won the last four runnings of the race between them (2 each) so anything they run should be noted. Tom Segal said: "I think Quite By Chance has been crying out for the trip and if he's back to his best he will go close in what isn't the best of races for the money. Holly Bush Henry did not jump fluently back chasing at Kempton two starts ago but perhaps he needed to get his eye back in and he did better when winning a fair race at Fakenham (3m, heavy) last time; with a small rise in the weights and star claimer James Bowen still on board, he may well progress further at 3m over fences and is a leading contender.

SELECTIONS 1st:  Holly Bush Henry  2nd:  Shanroe Santos  3rd:  Wicked Willy

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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