Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

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Tuesday 13th March 2018 Cheltenham Festival is the first day and provides three massive races - the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the Arkle Chase and the Champion Hurdle. It is imperative we get off to a great start and we have the information to make that possible. The Racing Horse will offer its members FREE collated trends and news on ALL 28 races giving members everything we need to make a profit!

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse Richter Scale which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this particular race we note there are 10 pieces of information that suggests we back something with a 90% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: 7yo carrying 11st 7lbs and male. Won last time out, ran 4 times that season. Rested 36 days, competed in 3 or 4 chases and started 5/1. 


Championship Novices' Chase

The Arkle Challenge Trophy is named after the racehorse of the 1960's. This Grade 1 Novices' Chase is open to horses 5yo or older and run on the Old Course over a distance of 2m with 13 fences to be jumped. It is the leading minimum-distance chase for novices in the National Hunt calendar producing numerous top class chasers of the last decade with 3 recent winners going on to win the Queen Mother Champion Chase the following year. 

Form horses fight out the finish

Fields for this race haven’t been big in recent years but that doesn’t stop it from being a real test for novices, who have to travel and jump faster than they ever have before. Form horses tend to fight out the finish, although Western Warhorse pulled off a shock win for David Pipe at 33/1 in 2014.


2.10 Cheltenham: ARKLE CHASE 2m (Grade 1) 5yo+

18 of the last 18 winners ran over fences a maximum of 5 times (100%)
17 of the last 17 winners had break of at least 3 weeks since last run (100%)
12 of the last 12 finished top 2 every time they completed the course (100%)
12 of the last 12 winners ran 1-5 times over fences (100%)
28 of the last 29 winners finished top 2 in all completed chase starts (97%)
17 of the last 18 winners ran in a novice chase last time out (94%)
17 of the last 18 winners won a novice chase between 2m – 2m1f (2014) (94%)
14 of the last 15 winners ran between 3-5 times that season (93%)
.9 of the last 10 winners were bred in Ireland or France (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners started at 8/1 or lower (90%)
17 of the last 19 winners aged 5-7yo (89%)
15 of the last 17 winners rated 142+ over hurdles (88%)
.5 of the last 6 favourites have won (all at odds on) (83%)
12 of the last 15 finished top 2 of Grade 2 or higher Chase (11/15 won) (80%)
13 of the last 17 winners had won a 'chase by 15th December (76%)
12 of the last 16 winners ran at the Festival before (75%)
.6 of the last 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (60%)
.6 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 4 at last Festival (60%)
.1 of the last 37 mares have won the Arkle (1980) (3%)


Other Information

The Arkle has seen male, 5-7yo's dominate for many years although the odd 8yo winner pops up every now and again. Decent hurdlers (rated 142+) make the best candidates but good consistent form over fences is essential (top 2 finishes in all completed chases).

Barry Geraghty is the most successful jockey in this race winning it four times.

Nicky Henderson has won this race three times since 2012 and six times in all so should know what it takes to win an Arkle.

12 of Paul Nicholls' last 13 runners failed to make the frame in the Arkle


This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. This template will be replicated on all the other 27 races so that the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must-have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...



Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.


The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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