Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Tuesday 13th March 2018 Cheltenham Festival is the first day and provides three massive races - the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the Arkle Chase and the Champion Hurdle. It is imperative we get off to a great start and we have the information to make that possible. The Racing Horse will offer its members FREE collated trends and news on ALL 28 races giving members everything we need to make a profit!

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse Richter Scale which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this race we note there are 11 pieces of information suggesting we back something with a 89% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: Specifically, a 8yo carrying 10st 12lbs who finished 3rd last time out, had 4 runs that season. Rested 54 days, had 9 chase runs and started at 16/1.

Generally we are looking for a 7-10yo with an official rating of 148 and a top 6 finish last time out. Those carrying 11st 7lbs or less and a rest of at least 16 days with two runs already for the season with form at 3m. Horses wearing headgear have won the last 6 renewals of this race and those that prepped in the Cleeve Hurdle also have a great record.

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Competitive race where they always go off too fast...

This competitive handicap, originally known as the National Hunt Handicap Chase and now officially as the Festival Trophy, has since been marketed as the Ultima Handicap Chase. It provides a stiff test over the trip, with the pace nearly always a strong one. It is run on the Old Course over a distance of about 3 miles and 1 furlong and during its running there are 20 fences to be jumped. It is always ultra-competitive and they usually go off too fast so it pays to take a sit and then produce. Novices or second-season chasers have a good record in the race, making life difficult for the proven class horses who are more exposed.

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2.05 Cheltenham: FESTIVAL HANDICAP CHASE 3m110y (Grade 3) 5yo+

48 of 48 horses aged 11yo+ have lost and only two made the frame (100%)
45 of 45 runners that failed to complete lto have been beaten (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners aged 7-10yo (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners ran between 2-7 since October (100%)
13 of the last 13 rested for at least 16 days (100%)
10 of the last 10 winners trained in Britain (100%)
10 of the last 10 won over 3m+ previously (100%)
12 of the last 13 winners finished Top 6 last time out (92%)
.9 of the last 10 winners won a Class 3 Chase or higher (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred (90%)
16 of the last 18 winners won over at least 3 miles (89%)
.8 of the last 10 either 7 or 8yos (80%)
.7 of the last 10 winners rated 142-148 (70%)
.7 of the last 10 winners carried between 10st 9lbs and 11st 7lbs (70%)
.9 of the last 13 winners last ran at Cheltenham, Doncaster or Haydock (69%)
.2 of the last 40 outright favourites have won (5%)

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Other information

The top trend combination tell us that 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 7-10yo, carried 11st 7lbs or less from a rating 127-148

5 of the last 9 winners of the Ultima Handicap were racing from a chase handicap rating that was 7lb or more lower than their hurdles rating. There were no qualifiers in 2017 so that particular trend is actually 5 wins from 8 years. 4 of those 5 winners were lightly raced chasers with 3-5-5-3 starts over fences. All 5 were aged 7 or 8yo. Are there any such horses down to run this year - yes! Snow Falcon but that one has multiple entries as we go to post but worth looking at with NRNB. He is an 8yo with 4 chase starts who is rated 8lbs less over fences that over the hurdles. Available at 16/1 as we go to post.

In 2009 Witchita Linesman was the first winning favourite since 1994

Just 1 claiming jockey (3lb) has won in the last 13 years from 35 such runners

Nicky Henderson is 0-10, Paul Nicholls is 0-11, Venetia William is 0-13 and Nigel Twiston-Davies is 0-15

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This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. This template will be replicated on all the other 27 races so that the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must-have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...

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Home Page: 2018 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DIRECTORY

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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