Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Tuesday 13th March 2018 Cheltenham Festival is the first day and provides three massive races - the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the Arkle Chase and the Champion Hurdle. It is imperative we get off to a great start and we have the information to make that possible. The Racing Horse will offer its members FREE collated trends and news on ALL 28 races giving members everything we need to make a profit!

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse Richter Scale which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this particular race we note there are 13 pieces of information suggesting we back something with a 80% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: 6-8yo carrying 11st 10lbs, rated 155+ with a run since Christmas, won last time out and ran 3 times that season. Rested for 41 days, ran over hurdles 12 times and a starting price of 7/1.

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Buveur D'Air stands out!

The feature race on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival is undoubtedly the Champion Hurdle, a grade one event run over two miles and a half a furlong where the best 2 mile hurdlers will battle up the famous hill for the coveted trophy. This race has normally gone to fairly fancied runners with only Hardy Eustace (33/1 in 2005) and Punjabi (22/1 in 2009) and to a lesser extent Sublimity (16/1 in 2007) being able to upset the form book in the last 20 years or so. More recently the Irish runners and especially those from the stable of Willie Mullins have dominated. In 2016 Annie Power became only the 4th mare to win the Champion Hurdle and this gave Mullins his fourth title in six seasons following earlier victories for Faugheen, and Hurricane Fly twice. 2017 saw a new star in Buveur D'Air!

Handling the ground conditions with the ability to race in large fields is key and must be considered in unison with the trends below...

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3.30 Cheltenham: CHAMPION HURDLE 2m110y (Grade 1) 4yo+

20 of the last 20 ran since Christmas (18/20 within last 51 days) (100%)
18 of the last 18 winners won at 2m-2m1f (100%)
13 of last 13 winners top 4 on both previous starts when completing (100%)
12 of the last 13 winners in top 3 on previous start (2014 was 4th) (92%)
11 of the last 12 winners ran since Christmas finishing top 3 (92%)
.9 of the last 10 winners were geldings (90%)
17 of the last 19 winners placed at previous Cheltenham Festival (89%)
16 of the last 18 winners won Grade 1 hurdle or Grade 3 H'cap Hurdle (89%)
16 of the last 19 winners aged 6-8yo (84%)
15 of the last 18 winners returned 11/1 or under (83%)
.8 of the last 10 winners won a Grade 1 Hurdle (80%)
.8 of the last 10 winners won last time out (80%)
.8 of the last 10 winners placed in the first 4 at previous Festival (80%)
10 of the last 13 winners ran 7 or more times over hurdles (77%)
13 of the last 18 winners won a Grade 1 or 2 hurdle that season (72%)
.7 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred (70%)
.7 of the last 10 winners were 6 or 7yos (70%)
.7 of the last 10 winners running in the race for the first time (70%)
.8 of the last 18 favourites have won (44%)

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Other Information

Ruby Walsh has ridden the Champion Hurdle winner 4 times in the last 6 years (Hurrican Fly 2011 & 2013, Faugheen 2015 and Annie Power 2016)

Willie Mullins has trained the winner 4 times in the last 6 years.

No horse has won the Champion Hurdle in successive years since Hardy Eustace in 2004 & 2005

2008 winner Katchit is the only 5yo winner since See You Then in 1985

Since 1951 there have only been 4 winners aged 9yo or over

No reigning Supreme Novice Hurdle winner has won the Champion Hurdle since 1971

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This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. This template will be replicated on all the other 27 races so the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must-have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...

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Home Page: 2018 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DIRECTORY

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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