Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Tuesday 13th March 2018 Cheltenham Festival is the first day and provides three massive races - the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the Arkle Chase and the Champion Hurdle. It is imperative we get off to a great start and we have the information to make that possible. The Racing Horse will offer its members FREE collated trends and news on ALL 28 races giving members everything we need to make a profit!

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse Richter Scale which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this race we note there are 5 pieces of information suggesting we back something with a 100% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: Looking for a 7yo carrying 11st 7lbs with 5 chase runs finishing third last time out and rested for 31 days. Has a rating of 138 and a starting price close to 10/1


Hard for a trainer to campaign for this race

This Novices Handicap Chase was introduced into the Festival in 2011 replacing the old Jewson Novices Handicap and also switching to the first day of the Festival.  The handicap is limited to horses rated under 140 and with so many entries, most runners will be rated within a few lbs of this, making for a very compressed handicap. Consequently it is hard for a trainer to campaign for this race specifically. In effect we are looking for a horse likely to progress to be running at the highest levels in the future. 


5.30 Cheltenham: NOVICE HANDICAP CHASE 2m5f (Listed) 5yo+

All 7 winners finished in top 2 in at least one of their last two runs (100%)
All of the last 6 winners were rated 137-142 and carried 11st 7lbs+ (100%)
All 10 runners carrying less than 11st 4lbs have finished unplaced (100%)
All of the last 7 winners ran between 4-8 times in previous 12 months (100%)
All of the last 7 winners ran in the previous 16-45 day (100%)
6 of the 7 winners were aged 6 or 7yo (exception was 9yo) (86%)
6 of the 7 winners were at 12/1 or under (86%)
6 of the last 7 winners raced over 2m4f+ last time out (86%)
6 of the last 7 winners got beat on their first run over fences (86%)
6 of the 7 winners had raced 3-5 times over fences (86%)
4 of the last 7 winners ran in a handicap last time out (57%)
Only 2 of the last 7 winners had their last run in a Listed or higher race (29%)


Other information

The top trend combination tells us all of the last 7 winners had raced in the last 16-45 days and finished in the top 2 in at least one of their last two runs


This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. This template will be replicated on all the other 27 races so that the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must-have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...



Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.


The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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