National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Tuesday 13th March 2018 Cheltenham Festival is the first day and provides three massive races - the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the Arkle Chase and the Champion Hurdle. It is imperative we get off to a great start and we have the information to make that possible. The Racing Horse will offer its members FREE collated trends and news on ALL 28 races giving members everything we need to make a profit!

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse Richter Scale which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this race we note there are 11 pieces of information suggesting we back something with a 90% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: Looking for a 7yo carrying 11st 6lbs with 6 chase runs. Finished third last time out and rested 58 days, had a rating of 138 and priced 16/1. 


Oldest race at the Cheltenham Festival

The National Hunt Chase is the oldest race run at the Cheltenham Festival and was first run over 140 years ago. These days it always carries a large field and is ridden by Amateur riders over the marathon trip of 4m. All horses are young novice chasers. It is a recipe for a shock result so hard to find the winner and the trends will help. Only 3 favourites have won in the last 21 years. Obviously stamina and jumping well is key but none of the horses have raced this distance.

Gordon Elliott's runners are worth a look

Gordon Elliott has been the man to follow in this race recently and Sutton Place looks like being a very interesting chaser this season for him. He looks like he will stay this marathon trip, and prior to injuring himself on his last start last season, he had won five in a row.


4.50 Cheltenham: NATIONAL HUNT CHASE 4m (Class 2) 5yo+

18 of the last 18 winners had break of 17 days since their last run (100%)
17 of the last 17 winners ran at least 3 times over fences (100%)
14 of the last 14 winners with an OR all rated 120 or higher (100%)
12 of the last 12 winners 3+ chase runs, top 2 finish in 3m + chase (100%)
18 of the last 19 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a 3 mile+ Chase (95%)
19 of the last 20 winners finished in the top 5 last time out (95%)
19 of the last 20 winners at least one Top 4 finish in last 2 starts (95%)
17 of the last 18 winners raced 4-8 times that season (since Sept) (94%)
12 of the 13 horses that started at 4/1 or shorter were beaten (92%)
.9 of the last 10 winners aged between 6-8yo (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners placed in first 3 on last start (90%)
.7 of the last 8 winners ran over fences by 31st October (88%)
14 of the last 18 winners were 7 or 8yo's (78%)
.7 of the last 10 winners raced at Cheltenham previously (70%)
.7 of the last 10 winners won a race that season (70%)
.6 of the last 10 winners trained in Britain (60%)
.7 maiden chasers won in the last 19 years (37%)


Other information

A minimum of 3 chase starts is essential, with the majority of winners having 3-5 runs over fences, as is a break of 17 days since their last run and a top 2 finish in a 3 mile+ chase.

75% of all win and placed horses are Irish bred.

In 2016 & 2017 the first three home were all Irish bred.

In 2013 all 8 finishers were Irish bred.

Paul Nicholls has a dismal record in this race

Jonjo O'Neill has won 5 of the last 15 runnings (33%)


This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. This template will be replicated on all the other 27 races so that the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must-have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...



Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.


The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *