Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Wednesday 14th March 2018 Cheltenham Festival is the second day and its feature race is the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Other top races include the Neptune Novices Hurdle, the RSA Chase and the Champion Bumper. The Racing Horse is offering FREE collated trends and news to members for ALL 28 races!

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse Richter Scale which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this particular race we note there are 14 pieces of information suggesting we back something with a 90% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: Looking for a 5 or 6yo carrying 11st 7lbs with an SP of 7/1. Rested for 48 days and won last time out and four runs this season so far, a win over 2m4f is usually required and a rating of over 131.

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Produces good horses for the future

The Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle used to be called the Neptune and also the old Sun Alliance novices hurdle and a youngsters race for those with a bit of stamina. It’s not all about stamina though, with the 2010 winner Peddlers Cross finishing second to Hurricane Fly in the following year's Champion Hurdle and the great Istabraq also was triumphant back in 1997. One thing for sure though is a strong pace in a big field. The race is always high class and one that produces good horses for the future.

 Irish horses respected

Irish trained horses must be respected in this race having triumphed six times in 10 years, with Mullins himself being responsible for back to back wins in 2008 and 2009, but the home brigade have got back in the picture when Simonsig won for Nicky Henderson in 2012 and The New One for Nigel Twiston-Davies in 2013. Faugheen wrestled the race back for the Irish in 2014 and that man Willie Mullins was responsible along with jockey Ruby Walsh. 2015 Dermot Weld trained Windsor Park to victory for yet another Irish win. In 2016 the combination teamed up to win it again with Yorkhill. 2017 saw Willoughby Court take it down at 14/1.

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1.30 Cheltenham: BALLYMORE NOVICES HURDLE 2m5f (Grade 1) 5yo+

18 of the last 18 winners aged 5 or 6yo (100%)
18 of the last 18 winners raced a maximum of 5 times since October (100%)
12 of the last 12 winners with a rating, all were rated 131 or higher (100%)
19 of the last 20 winners were 14/1 or shorter (95%)
19 of the last 20 winners from the first 5 in the betting (95%)
11 of the last 12 winners with a rating all were rated 138+ or higher
18 of the last 20 winners won at least one of their last two races (90%)
18 of the last 20 winners made the frame in graded hurdle race (14 won) (90%)
18 of the last 20 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out (90%)
18 of the last 20 winners had a maximum of 5 Irish/GB hurdle runs (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners started at 7/1 or less (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners were placed in a Graded hurdle (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners won a bumper race (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners won over 2m4f already (90%)
13 of the last 15 winners won at least 50% of their hurdle races (87%)
17 of the last 20 winners won at 2m 4f+ (85%)
16 of the last 19 winners started career in Irish PTP or Bumpers (84%)
.8 of the last 10 winners rated 142 or higher (80%)
.8 of the last 10 winners won last time out (80%)
.7 of the last 10 winners had NOT won a Grade 1 hurdle (70%)
.6 of the last 10 winners trained in Ireland (60%)
.1 of the last 100 aged 6yo or over has won this race (1%)

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Other information

Since 1998 only 3 winners had previously run at the Festival.

The top trend combination shows 11 of the last 12 winners were 5 or 6yo with a top 2 finish last time out

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This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. We will replicate this template on all the other 27 races so that the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...

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Home Page: 2018 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DIRECTORY

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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