RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Wednesday 14th March 2018 Cheltenham Festival is the second day and its feature race is the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Other top races include the Neptune Novices Hurdle, the RSA Chase and the Champion Bumper. The Racing Horse is offering FREE collated trends and news to members for ALL 28 races!

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse Richter Scale which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this particular race we note there are 16 pieces of information suggesting we back something with a 90% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: Looking for a 7yo who finished 1st or 2nd last time out with 4 chase runs. He (no mares please), would carry 11st 4lbs, rested 34 days with an SP close to 15/2

A top 3 finish in a Graded Chase, a win in a chase at 2m3f+, no more than 10
hurdle runs and at least 8 career starts helps to build the perfect trends profile.

Race increasing in quality over the years

The second race on Wednesday’s card is the RSA Chase, a gruelling race for novice chasers and in recent times has thrown up future Gold Cup hopes. It’s often run at a good gallop and really does test the youngster’s jumping and staying ability. The race seems to have increased in quality over the years, Denman, Albertas Run, Cooldine and 2010 winner Weapons Amnesty all rated over 160, and all gone on to win Grade 1 races. Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere have actually won the Gold Cup after being sucessful in the RSA the year before. Irish trained horses have won five of the last nine races but 2018 Gold Cup contender Mighty Bite won this in 2017 at 7/2. This was once a race of big fields and the odd big priced winner but in recent runnings the trend has changed to smaller fields and the more fancied runners dominating.


2.10 Cheltenham: RSA Chase (Grade 1) 5yo+

13 of the last 13 winners won a chase over 2m3f or further (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 3 last time out (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners had break of at least 24 days since last run (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners raced at least 8 times in their career (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners won over hurdles, 7 of last 10 in Listed+ (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners ran no more than 10 times over hurdles (100%)
12 of the last 13 winners top 3 finish in a Grade 1 or 2 novice chase (exception fell when well clear in a Grade 1 novice chase) (92%)
12 of the last 13 winners had run at least 3 times over fences (92%)
12 of the last 13 winners had run 3 – 5 times since October (92%)
39 of the last 43 winners finished in the top 2 last time out (91%)
.9 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners started at 12/1 or shorter (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first two last time out (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners won on a left-handed track (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners won over 2m5f+ (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winner won or placed in Grade 1 or 2 Chase previously (90%)
14 of the last 17 winners were aged 7yo (82%)
.8 of the last 10 winners contested race at a previous Fesitival (80%)
10 of the last 13 winners came from the top 5 in the betting (77%)
.3 of the last 39 winners aged 6yo have won (8%)
.0 of the last 17 winners ran on the Flat (0%)
.0 of the 36 winners was a mare (0%)


Other Information

Since 2000 every winner bar 1 had finished top 4 in all completed Chases

Only 2 of the the last 16 winners lined up unbeaten over fences

No winner of the Feltham Chase (Kempton) has ever won the RSA Chase. Only
two Reynoldstown winners (Albertas Run & O'Failans Boy) have followed up since 1973


This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. We will replicate this template on all the other 27 races so that the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...



Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

Remember the golden rule: The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.


  Today's Pacafi: click here

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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