Lingfield AW Championships (Saturday 24th February 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

 The Racing Horse offer more key trends to point the reader in the direction of winners, if not, then at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners. This Saturday we look at racing from Lingfield and will attempt to pick the 1-2-3s on Friday night at 6pm.

2.05 Lingfield: Betway Hever Sprint Stakes (AW Championship Fast-Track Qualifier (Listed) 5f6y

10/11: Rated 96+
..9/11: Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
..8/11: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
..8/11: Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
..8/11: Placed favs
..8/11: Had raced at Lingfield before
..7/11: Aged 4 or 5yo
..6/11: Ran at Lingfield last time out
..4/11: US bred
..4/11: Winning favourites
..3/11: Mare winners
..3/11: Trained by David Barron
..0/11: Winners from stall 1

VERDICT: The in-form Karijini has has won three of her last four starts so heads here in red-hot form but the last of those came just three days ago so has she recovered? She gets weight all-round so that helps, but being rated 85 does mean she’s still got a fair bit to find still with most of the others in this big hike up in grade to a Listed race. The current favourite Gracious John hasn't beaten a rival on last two starts but had closed out 2017 by giving weight and a beating to Royal Birth over course and distance and to Tomily at Wolverhampton and would go very close if he could recapture that level. Orvar has the outside draw to overcome but prefers to run just off the pace so not a killer and he looks place material. Encore D'Or was well below his best in two turf starts at Meydan this year but leading contender on pick of last year's efforts which include Listed win at Doncaster under Ryan Moore and a Chelmsford win over Royal Birth. Draw 2 looks great and is fit, he also loves Lingfield and his form here reads 1413.



3.15 Lingfield: Betway Winter Derby (AW Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) 1m2f

15/15: Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
13/15: Won by a horse aged 6yo or younger
12/15: Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
11/15: Had run at Lingfield previously
11/15: Won over at least 1m2f previously
11/15: Had raced at either Lingfield (7) or Kempton (4) last time out
11/15: Winning distance – less than a length
10/15: Placed in their last race
10/15: Drawn in stall 7 or less
10/15: Came from the top 3 in the market
..9/15: Won at Lingfield previously
..9/15: Won their last race
..9/15: Had raced within the last 7 weeks
..8/15: Won at least 6 times previously
..7/15: Winning favourites

The average winning SP in the 15 renewals is 11/2

VERDICT: Aidan O’Brien sends Clear Skies with Ryan Moore to ride so this 5yo needs a serious look and especially as she receives 3lbs from the others and comes into the race off the back of a 5 ½ length win at Dundalk. She stays further than this 1m2f trip, while her only blot recently was when tried over 2m finishing third. The trainer told us: "We've been happy with her since her last win. She's progressed with every run, winning five times on the Polytrack at Dundalk, and we've had this race in mind for her. She's drawn one and, hopefully, that will help." We think her step up into Group 3 company might be too much and will not be our selection but the market will heavily bias this runner meaning there is value elsewhere. We are not considering last year's winner Convey either, Michael Stoute said: ""He had a foot abscess a couple of weeks ago which was a concern but he's progressed well since. He's in good shape and we expect him to run a big race." Our idea of the winner is Utmost for John Gosden, Robert Havlin, jockey said: "He's still relatively unexposed but seems to have improved the last twice he's run and felt in good shape when I rode him out yesterday. Obviously he has to step up again as it's a better race but he has a nice draw and we're hoping for another nice run."

At the odds Utmost is a great each-way bet and the one they all have to beat...

SELECTIONS 1st UTMOST 5/1  2nd CLEAR SKIES 9/4f  3rd CONVEY 15/2


  Today's Pacafi: click here

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