Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Thursday 15th March 2018 Cheltenham Festival is the third day and still plenty of excitement to come. The Racing Horse is offering FREE collated trends and news to members for ALL 28 races!

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this particular race we note there are 12 pieces of information (at this moment) that suggests we back something with a 90% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: We are looking for an 8yo with 12 chase runs carrying 11st 10lbs. Rated 162, rested for 45 days and finished 2nd on last outing starting at 5/1.

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The Ryanair Chase is the first Grade 1 of Thursdays meeting and attracts some of the best middle distance chasers there is. It is run over a distance of 2m5f and attracts decent sorts. It is open to 5yos and above and is no longer limited to novices as it was years ago. The Paddy Power Gold Cup, run in November at the Cheltenham track often gives an indicator as to horses that may participate in this race as it is run over 2m 4 ½ furlongs. This race was added when the Cheltenham Festival was increased to four days from three so there is only 13 years of history though many of the winners have often had some previous impressive course form.

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2.50 Cheltenham: Ryanair Chase


13 of the 13 winners had raced a maximum of 4 times that season (100%)
13 of the 13 winners were rated 152 or higher (100%)
13 of the 13 winners had won a Class 1 race (100%)
13 of the 13 winners had finished in the top 3 over 2m 5f (12/13 top 2) (100%)
13 of the 13 winners had their last run 26-90 days ago (100%)
12 of 12 winners raced a max 4 times that season, rated 152 or higher (100%)
12 of last 12 winners had all won over 2m4f - 2m5f (100%)
10 of the 10 winners have won at Graded level previously (100%)
12 of the 13 winners (7 runners up) won at the course previously (100%)
12 of the 13 winners were aged 7-10yo (92%)
.9 of the last 10 winners won over a trip of at least 2m5f (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners had won at Cheltenham previously (90%)
11 of the 13 winners came from the top 3 in the betting (85%)
11 of the 13 winners had top 2 finish in at least 1 of last 2 starts (85%)
.8 of the last 10 winners were not trained in Ireland (80%)
.8 of the last 10 winners were bred in Ireland or France (80%)
10 of 13 winners had last race at Ascot, Cheltenham or Kempton (77%)
.9 of the 12 winners finished in the top 3 on previous run (75%)
.7 of the last 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting (70%)
.6 of the last 10 winners ran in the King George at Kempton (60%)
.6 of the last 10 favourites were beaten (60%)
.6 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8yo (60%)

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Other Information

Only 10 horses with double figure odds have made the frame out of the 39 places

Only 1 horse aged over 10 has been placed (Albertas Run in 2012)

In the 13 runnings of the race, Irish and French bred horses have filled all bar 4 of the 39 places

4 of the 8 beaten favourites won a Grade 1 chase last time out

Since being upgraded to Grade 1 status the Ryanair has seen top class horses rated 161+ come to the fore. We also need a 7-10yo with winning form at around 2m4f who has been lightly raced that season and has a recent top 2 finish. A rest of around 4 weeks since their last run which came at one of the big tracks is a major plus as is being Irish or French Bred. Previous course form is a big pointer and fancied horses tend to do well...

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This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. We will replicate this template on all the other 27 races so that the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...

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To view details of our 2018 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DIRECTORY

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

  Today's Pacafi: click here

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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