Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Thursday 15th March 2018 Cheltenham Festival is the third day and still plenty of excitement to come. TThe Racing Horse is offering FREE collated trends and news to members for ALL 28 races!

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this particular race we note there are 12 pieces of information (at this moment) that suggests we back something with a 90% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: We are looking for an 8yo with 11 chase runs carrying 10st 9lbs. Rated 138, rested for 40 days and finished 6th on last outing starting at 25/1.

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Known generally as the Festival Plate (formerly the Mildmay of Flete Handicap) this race is open to horses aged 5yo and over and is a Grade 3 contest. It is run over 2m5f and a handicap chase that may end up losing some of its runners to the new 2m5f novice chase. The race is notoriously competitive over the years and big priced winners are normal so even more reason to check out the trends.

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4.10 Cheltenham: Festival Plate


13 of the last 13 winners had last run in Class 1-3 Chase (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners won a Class 3 or better race (100%)
10 of the last 10 winners won over 2m2f to 2m5f previously (100%)
.9 of the last 9 winners carried 10st 13lbs or less (100%)
12 of the last 13 winners had won at a trip between 2m3f and 2m6f (92%)
12 of the last 13 winners were 12/1 or bigger (2012 fav won) (92%)
12 of the last 13 winners carried 11st 3lbs or less (92%)
12 of the last 13 winners raced 16 or fewer times over fences (92%)
.9 of the last 10 favourites got beat (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners started at 10/1 or higher (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners carried less than 11st (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners had not won more than 1 race that season (90%)
11 of the last 13 winners were rated 135-145 (85%)
11 of the last 13 winners were aged 6-9yo (85%)
11 of the last 13 winners ran at Cheltenham previously (1-4 times) (85%)
.8 of the last 10 winners were rated between 130-140 (OR) (80%)
.8 of the last 10 were not Irish trained (80%)
.6 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 to 10yo (60%)
.2 of the 4 winners aged under 8yo were French Breds (50%)
.8 of the last 18 second places have been French bred (44%)
.7 of the last 18 winners have been French bred (39%)
.2 winning favourites in the last 34 years (3%)

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Other Information

All 35 runners that had their last race at Kempton got beat here.


Since 2000 the Irish had 35 runners for 2 winners and 4 placed horses.

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This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. We will replicate this template on all the other 27 races so that the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...

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To view details of our 2018 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DIRECTORY

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

  Today's Pacafi: click here

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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