Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Friday 16th March 2018 is the final day of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. The feature race is the Cheltenham Gold Cup but we also have the Triumph Hurdle and the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. By the end of the day £700m is expected to have changed hands and with our FREE collated trends we hope we have helped in the direction of travel.

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this particular race we note there are 7 pieces of information (at this moment) that suggests we back something with a 90% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: We are looking for an 6yo with 6 hurdle runs carrying 11st 7lbs. Would have been rested for 54 days, finished 2nd on his last run and started at 11/1


 The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle race takes place 40 minutes before the Gold Cup and is open to novices aged 4yo and above. It is run over a gruelling 3m as is the World Hurdle, and this race may point to future stars of that event. You need to find a thorough stayer to last up the Cheltenham hill when rivals are running on empty an our trends will help. It is a fairly new addition to the festival and has only been part of the calendar since 2005, but was upgraded to Grade 1 status in 2008.

Horses with good recent form have dominated this race but market leaders have struggled in this race in recent years with winners at 16/1, 11/1, 14/1 and 33/1 obliging since 2014. It’s a gruelling test with stamina the key component required.


2.50 Cheltenham: Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

13 of the last 13 winners rested for at least 26 days prior (100%)
10 of the last 10 winners won over trip of 2m4f or more (100%)
12 of the 13 winners ran in Grade 2 race last time out (92%)
12 of the 13 winners were aged 5-7yo (92%)
12 of the 13 winners finished in top 4 of Grade 2 hurdle lto (92%)
12 of the 13 winners had won a race at 2m4f or further (92%
.9 of the last 10 winners never ran on the Flat (90%)
33 of the 39 win and placed horses were Irish or French Bred (85%)
10 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded Hurdle (83%)
32 of the 39 win and placed horses finished 1st or 2nd lto (82%)
.8 of the last 10 winners were bred in Ireland or France (80%)
.8 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7yo (80%)
.8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 2 last timeout (80%)
.8 of the last 10 winners won a Graded race (80%)
.8 of the last 10 favourites were beaten (80%)
.9 of the last 12 winners ran 3-6 times over hurdles in GB & Ireland (75%)
.7 of the last 10 winners ran between 3 and 6 times over hurdles (70%)
.6 of the last 10 winners previously won a Bumper race (60%)
.5 of the last 10 winners were trained in Britain (50%)
.8 of the 13 winners were 9/1 or shorter (62%)
.4 of the last 13 winners had last run at Cheltenham (31%)
.1 of the 30 runners that had their last run in a handicap has won (3%)


Other Information

All of the last 12 winners were rested at least 31 days and had won a Grade 1 Chase

A 5-7yo who finished top 4 in a Grade 2 hurdle last time out is still a very
important trend and the best place to start when looking for the winner of this race.


This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. We will replicate this template on all the other 27 races so that the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...


To view details of our 2018 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DIRECTORY

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.


The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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