Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Friday 16th March 2018 is the final day of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. The feature race is the Cheltenham Gold Cup but we also have the Triumph Hurdle and the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. By the end of the day £700m is expected to have changed hands and with our FREE collated trends we hope we have helped in the direction of travel.

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this particular race we note there are 9 pieces of information (at this moment) that suggests we back something with a 88% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: We are looking for an 6yo with 8 hurdle runs carrying 10st 10lbs. Rated 139 it would have been rested for 75 days, finished 6th on his last run and started at 16/1


The County Hurdle always used to be the last race of the meeting but has been moved further up the card. The second hurdles race of the afternoon is a Grade 3 affair and run over 2m1f. It is open to horses aged 5yo and above and has been won by some massive priced winners over the last few years. It has been moved by the schedulers and was traditionally the last race of the festival. It's always a fast run race with horses that are held up having a big advantage. The complexion of the race usually changes dramatically from the last hurdle with recent winners coming from well off the pace. In-running exchange betting for this race is not for the faint-hearted.

Paul Nicholls has won this race four times in recent years, 2009, 2006, 2004 and in 2014 whilst the Irish trainers have also been very prominent, winning seven times since 2007. Irish trainer Willie Mullins has won the County Hurdle four times since 2010 including 12 months ago with the classy Arctic Fire who shouldered 11st 12lbs to victory. The yard have had plenty of placed horses too and is the obvious place to start the preview.


2.10 Cheltenham: County Handicap Hurdle

12 of the last 12 winners won a hurdle race between 2m - 2m1f (100%)
12 of the last 12 winners had last start in Class 1-3 Hurdle race (100%)
10 of the last 10 favourites have been beaten (100%)
11 of the last 12 winners ran between 4-14 times over hurdles (92%)
11 of the last 12 winners ran 2 or more times that season (92%)
11 of the last 12 winners were rated 131-139 (92%)
.9 of the last 10 winners ran at least 3 times that season (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners started at 10/1 or higher (90%)
14 of the last 16 winners had yet to win at the track (88%)
10 of the last 12 winners carried 11st 1lbs or less (83%)
10 of the last 12 winners ran within the last 10 weeks (70 days) (83%)
.8 of the last 10 winners not won more than 2 hurdle races (80%)
.8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6yo (80%)
.9 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6yo (75%)
.7 of the last 10 winners carried 11st or less (70%)
.7 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland (70%)
.7 of the last 10 winners finished in top 3 last time out (70%)
.7 of the last 10 winners had won a Class 3 hurdle (70%)
.4 of the last 16 winners won last time out (25%)
.1 of the last 16 winners dropping down in trip (from 68 such runners) (6%)
.0 winners from 63 rides by jockeys claiming 5lb or more (since 2002) (0%)


Other Information

6 of the last 20 winners ran at Newbury last time out. 5 of the Irish winners had their last start at Leopardstown.

Just 6 winners since 1959 have been aged over 7yo.


This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. We will replicate this template on all the other 27 races so that the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...


To view details of our 2018 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DIRECTORY

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.


The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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