Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Friday 16th March 2018 is the final day of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. The feature race is the Cheltenham Gold Cup but we also have the Triumph Hurdle and the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. By the end of the day £700m is expected to have changed hands and with our FREE collated trends we hope we have helped in the direction of travel.

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this particular race we note there are 14 pieces of information (at this moment) that suggests we back something with a 88% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: We are looking for an 8yo with 10 chase runs carrying 11st 10lbs. Rated 171, would have been rested for 68 days, finished 2nd on his last run and started at 11/2


 The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the most prestigious event in the whole of the National Hunt calendar and the highlight of the Festival. Open to those 5yo and older it takes place over a 3m2f trip finding out any horses that has stamina doubts. Run at speed it seriously tests the jumping ability of the contenders.

Arkle won the race 3 times in a row back in the 60’s and then more recently Best Mate repeated the feat in 2002, 2003 and 2004. Paul Nicholls has made the race his own in recent times, recording a treble over 2007, 2008 and 2009 with Denman and Kauto Star with the latter certainly capturing the hearts of many of the racing public. There are a number of trends people consider for this race, and big clues to the possible winner often come from the King George VI chase which is run at Kempton on Boxing Day.

This years Blue Riband event at Cheltenham, the Gold Cup promises to be one of the most renewals for sometime with at least ten horses capable of landing the big prize so we need the trends to help us.


3.30 Cheltenham: Gold Cup

24 of the last 24 runners rated 147 or less finished unplaced (100%)
18 of the last 18 British winners were rated 166 or higher (100%)
17 of the last 17 winners were aged 6-9yo (100%)
16 of the last 16 winners had last start in a Graded Chase (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners had run 2-5 times that season (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners been rested at least 31 days (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners had top 6 finish last time out (100%)
10 of the last 10 winners won over 3m+ previously (100%)
16 of the last 17 winners all returned 8/1 or shorter (94%)
16 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 chase (94%)
19 of the last 21 winners won at least 1 of last 3 races (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting (90%)
.9 of the last 10 winners were rated 165 or higher (90%)
15 of the last 17 winners all from the top 3 in the betting (88%)
11 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 2 last time out (85%)
17 of the last 20 winners had won over 3m or further (85%)
.8 of the last 10 winners placed at the Festival before (80%)
.8 of the last 10 winners won last time out (80%)
.8 of the last 10 winners were aged between 8 and 9yo (80%)
10 of the last 13 winners had run 5-11 times over fences (77%)
.7 of the last 10 winners were French or Irish bred (70%)
.7 of the last 10 winners were not trained in Ireland (70%)
.7 of the last 10 winners had won Grade 1 that season (70%)
11 of the last 16 winners last raced in a Grade 1 (69%)
.6 of the last 10 favourites were beaten (60%)
.1 of the last 19 winners were aged 10yo (Cool Dawn) (5%)


Other Information

15 of the last 16 winners had their last start at just 1 of 3 tracks (Kempton 6, Leopardstown 5 or Newbury 4).

All 37 runners coming on from Cheltenham got beat.

In 2009's race Kauto Star became the first horse to ever regain his Gold Cup crown. He was also the first horse since 1983 (Bregawn) to improve on a placed effort from the previous years Gold Cup.


This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. We will replicate this template on all the other 27 races so that the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...


To view details of our 2018 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DIRECTORY

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.


The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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