Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Thursday 15th March 2018 Cheltenham Festival is the third day and still plenty of excitement to come. The Racing Horse is offering FREE collated trends and news to members for ALL 28 races!

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this particular race we note there are 9 pieces of information (at this moment) that suggests we back something with a 88% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: Look for a 8yo with 11 chase starts. Rated 135 and rested for 46 days after finishing 9th on its last start. Set to carry 11st 4lbs at odds of 14/1


The Kim Muir is a handicap chase and the last race on Thursday over 3m and open to horses aged 5yo and above and open to amateur jockeys and often throws up a Grand National sort. In our opinion it is a tough race and not one to savour but there has to be a winner and the trends in these type of races even more important.


5.30 Cheltenham: Kim Muir Handicap Chase

16 of the last 16 winners set to carry 10st 10lb or more (100%)
16 of the last 16 winners rested at least 16 days since last run (100%)
16 of the last 16 winners raced no more than 6 times since October (100%)
10 of the last 10 winners won no more than 2 handicap chases (100%)
9 of last 9 winners rated 134-142 set to carry 11 4 or more (100%)
19 of the last 20 winners were aged 7-10yo (95%)
12 of the last 13 winners were aged 7-9yo (92%)
9 the last 10 winners were rated 134 or more (90%)
14 of the last 16 winners last race in class 1-3 handicap over 3 miles (88%)
11 of the last 13 winners were ridden by non-claiming jockeys (85%)
11 of the last 13 winners returned 16/1 or shorter (85%)
8 the last 10 winners raced over 3m last time out (80%)
8 the last 10 winners carried 11st 4lbs or more (80%)
8 the last 10 winners ridden by jockey with no claim (80%)
8 the last 10 winners not trained in Ireland (80%)
8 the last 10 favourites got beat (80%)
15 of the last 20 winners had won a handicap chase (75%)
7 the last 10 winners won over 3m previously (70%)
7 the last 10 winners finished 5th or worst on last start (70%)


Other Information

The last Irish winner prior to 2014/16 was in 1983 with Greasepaint.


This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. We will replicate this template on all the other 27 races so that the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...


To view details of our 2018 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DIRECTORY

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.


The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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