Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Friday 16th March 2018 is the final day of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. The feature race is the Cheltenham Gold Cup but we also have the Triumph Hurdle and the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. By the end of the day £700m is expected to have changed hands and with our FREE collated trends we hope we have helped in the direction of travel.

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this particular race we note there are 9 pieces of information (at this moment) that suggests we back something with a 88% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: There are only 9 years of data as the race was first run in 2009 but we have seen all 9 renewals go to either a 5 or 6yo male rated 133-143 who had run in the previous 21-60 days. A top 5 finish last time out is a major plus as is carrying 11-07 or less. 3lb claimers have 5 of the 9 wins with the other 4 having been won by non claiming jockeys. 


This race is named after the prolific National Hunt trainer Martin Pipe (34 Cheltenham Festival winners) who retired in 2006. It is open to horses aged 4yo and above and is restricted to conditional jockeys that have less than 75 wins under racing rules. Conditions can play a big part in how this race pans out. The festival is coming to an end so by the time this race is run, the ground could be cut up if there's been bad weather and the fact that 3 hurdles races have already taken place earlier in the afternoon.

The race may also give an indication as to the future champion jockeys and is often contested by horses that have run well in the previous years Coral Cup and it showed the importance of course form. The fact that Willie Mullins has won this three times, Paul Nicholls twice and Gordon Elliott once in the last seven years probably tells you that this race often falls to a well laid out improving young hurdler.


4.50 Cheltenham: Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle

9 of the last 9 winners were aged 5 or 6yo (100%)
9 of the last 9 winners carried over 11st (100%)
9 of the last 9 winners rated between 133-143 (100%)
9 of the last 9 winners last raced 21-60 days ago (100%)
9 of the last 9 ran either 0 or 1 at Cheltenham previously (100%)
9 of the last 9 were rated between 1-10lbs of top rated (100%)
8 of the last 9 finished top 5 last time (89%)
8 of the last 9 winners previously won over 2m2f or further (89%)
8 of the last 9 winners were beaten favourites (89%)
8 of the last 9 winners ran between 3-5 times that season (89%)
7 of the last 9 won a race that season (78%)
7 of the last 9 winners started at 10/1 or higher (78%)
6 of the last 9 winners were second season hurdlers (67%)
6 of the last 9 winners were Irish bred (67%)
6 of the last 9 winners ran in a non-handicap race last time (67%)


Other Information

All 36 runners coming on from Cheltenham (18) or Newbury (18) finished unplaced

All 15 runners wearing blinkers finished unplaced

All 11 females finished unplaced


This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. We will replicate this template on all the other 27 races so that the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...


To view details of our 2018 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DIRECTORY

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.


The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

  Today's Pacafi: click here

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