Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

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Tuesday 13th March 2018 Cheltenham Festival is the first day and provides three massive races - the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the Arkle Chase and the Champion Hurdle. It is imperative we get off to a great start and we have the information to make that possible. The Racing Horse will offer its members FREE collated trends and news on ALL 28 races giving members everything we need to make a profit!

 Just as last year we will use the successful Racing Horse Richter Scale which is a numerical percentage for expressing the magnitude of an event repeating itself. The power cannot be underestimated!

For example, for this particular race there are 16 pieces of information that suggests we back something with a 90% chance or more of happening again!

The Racing Horse RICHTER SCALE: 6yo carrying 11st 7lbs who won last time out, had 3 runs that season. Rested 40 days, had 4 hurdle runs and started at 12/1

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Not a great race for favourites!

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is the opening race of the Festival and a 2m110y hurdle race on the old course. The race is restricted to novices and often produces winners who continue to shine at the Festival in future years. It is one of the most eagerly anticipated races of the entire season though not a great race for favourites. Only two have won in the last 12 renewals but that said, only a couple of those have started longer than 12/1. The longest-priced winner was Arctic Kinsman at 50/1 in 1994.

Cheltenham roar!

Willie Mullins has won this race five times, Nicky Henderson three and Noel Meade twice. The punters always hope to get off to a good start and the Grade One has become famous for the 'Cheltenham roar' which accompanies the start of the contest. Beware, handling the ground conditions with the ability to race in large fields is key and must be considered in unison with the trends below...

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1.30 Cheltenham: SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE 2m110y (Grade 1) 4yo+

16 of the last 16 foaled between March & May (0-77 the others) (100%)
16 of the last 16 had between 2-7 runs that season (100%)
16 of the last 16 won over hurdles previously (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners ran 2-5 times over hurdles (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners been rested at least 16 days (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners won at 2m – 2m1f (100%)
13 of the last 13 winners raced over 2m -2m2f last time out (100%)
19 of the last 20 winners won at least 50% of career hurdle races (95%)
15 of the last 16 sent off no bigger than 25/1 (94%)
15 of the last 16 previously won at least a Class 3 contest (94%)
15 of the last 16 previously contested at least a Class 2 race (94%)
15 of the last 16 finished in first three last time out (94%)
12 of the last 13 winners ran 2-4 times since October (92%)
12 of the last 13 winners ran within the last 60 days (92%)
39 of the last 43 renewals won by 5 & 6yos (91%)
.9 of the last 10 winners came from top 6 in the betting (90%)
10 of the last 13 winners won their previous race (77%)
10 of the last 13 winners ran in a Graded race - 8 of the 10 won (77%)
.7 of the last 10 Irish winners were their most fancied runner (70%)
.8 of the last 13 winners started off in NH Flat races (62%)
12 of the last 20 winners was Irish trained (60%)
.8 of the last 20 winners was British trained (40%)
.3 of the last 13 winners came from the Flat (23%)
.4 of the last 20 horses to start at 3/1 or under have won (20%).

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Other information

Of those who held an Official Rating at the time of the race, no winner was rated lower than 136. Those rated lower are 0-71.

The top trend combination tell us that 11 of the last 12 winners had won 50% of their hurdle runs and 2-4 runs since October

Only 1 Supreme Novices Hurdle winner since 1993 hadn't run since Christmas

The last horse to win having had just the one run was Flown in 1992

Those sporting headgear in this race are 0 from 34 since 1992

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This factual representation is the very best starting point and this page will be periodically updated right up to the Monday night before the Festival. By then we will have the official runners and riders and a clear idea of the ground conditions. This template has been replicated on all the other 27 races so that the reader has all the information they need to WIN at this year's Festival. It is a must-have tool and well worth the £9.95 membership charge...

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Home Page: 2018 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DIRECTORY

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

  Today's Pacafi: click here

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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