The Racing Horse offer more key trends to point the reader in the direction of winners, if not, then at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners. This Saturday we look at the Lincoln which is traditionally the feature event on the first Saturday of Britain's turf flat racing season. We think we have found the winner in our 1-2-3-4.
This race will see a field of 21-runners go to post over 1m in South Yorkshire for a chance to win the £62,250 first prize. Bravery won the renewal last year for David O’Meara to become the seventh consecutive double-figure priced winner since 2011. No favourite has won the race since Expresso Star for John Gosden in 2009. The going is expected to be soft. (GoingStick 5.6) (Showers).
3.35 Doncaster: 32Red Lincoln Heritage Handicap Class 2 (4yo+) 1m
15/15: Aged 6yo or younger
14/15: Carried 9st 4lbs or less in weight
13/15: Had won over at least 1m before
12/15: Had won between 2-4 times before
11/15: Drawn in stall 9 or higher
10/15: Unplaced favourites
10/15: Having their first run of the flat season
10/15: Returned a double figure price in the betting
.9/15: Winning distance – 1 length or more
.8/15: Had raced at Doncaster before
.8/15: Aged 4yo
.7/15: Officially rated between 95-98
.7/15: Placed first or second last time out
.6/15: Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
.5/15: Came from the top 3 in the betting
.5/15: Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
.5/15: Won last time out
.4/15: Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
.3/15: Winning favourites
The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was at Newcastle.
The average SP in the last 15 runnings is 14/1. Recently the race has been dominated by horses aged 4yo, winning 8 of the last 15 renewals. One trend not to ignore is 14 of the last 15 winners carried 9st 4lbs or less whilst 7 of the last 15 were officially rated between 95-98.
THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:
1st Addeybb 13/2 2nd Chelsea Lad 20/1 3rd Fire Brigade 6/1 4th Repercussion 20/1
Today's Pacafi: click here
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