RULE 1a Sports Betting: There is no such thing as luck!

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment




We know there have been times in the distant past when we have said to ourselves 'we are due a winner' but of course we are due NOTHING! By what rule or mathematical equation are we due anything? Likewise we used to say 'we are due a change of luck' and of course that is nonsense too! We know luck has neither memory nor consciousness, it is a commodity of hindsight and the reason why no reader or member will read the word 'LUCK' on The Racing Horse as part of an excuse!

Our spreadsheet and those of other professionals does not contain a column titled luck or nearly and it does not contain one of bad jockey rides. It contains win, lose, profit and loss NOTHING else between these points exists, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!


The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations, but is most strongly associated with gambling, where such mistakes are common among players.


Winning at betting is a long-term game, absolutely anything can happen in the short-term. Our strategy is geared to making incremental gains over a period but just as important, to do it without risk. Whilst it is impossible to know everything, with experience and a mathematical aptitude and a strategy, it is possible to develop a confident, effective and winning approach. There is no quantifiable optimum sports betting strategy. A winning strategy cannot be proved as such, there must always be always be a possibility that one is winning through luck, but if you win over the long-term like we do, winning through luck is virtually impossible!

If you would like to see how we work and the rationale behind that accompanies it then please ask for a FREE TRIAL and contact us here and we will allow certain access for a period of time and enough for one to make an informed decision..


 The Racing Horse prides itself on its honesty and integrity and our long-term members will know we are our own worst critic. We readily admit to a mistake and recognise there things we could do better and some a lot better. Or principal problem is we are a one-man band and a bit of a technophobe and this compromises things we might like to do.

Our betting represents our primary source of income so we have an obsession with finding that next winner and inevitably this means spending an inordinate amount of time searching, evaluating and checking data. Minutes of delving often lead to hours and then more hours (and then a lifetime). After this lengthy process we have to decide if we can get on at the price and claim perceived value.

Make no mistake even though we have a small site it is a full-time job for one person. Futhermore, because we enjoy the work and process we only ask for 33p per day to help pay for the cost of running the site and given we return a profit that easily pays for the subscription.


Regarding other websites there are only four we trust, they are:

Special thanks to Matt Bisogno of Geegeez and Betting Insiders for their help and co-operation.

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

 The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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