Identikit of Punchestown Gold Cup

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offer more key trends and believes it has the identikit of the winner of the Punchestown Gold Cup! As always the trends will point the reader in the direction of the winner, if not, then at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners. This race is a Grade 1 National Hunt steeplechase run over 3m120y with 17 fences to be jumped.


Willie Mullins supplies four of the 13 runners in Wednesday's Coral Punchestown Gold Cup on day two of the Festival meeting. Mullins pitches Killultagh Vic, Bellshill, Djakadam and Total Recall, who ran in the Grand National last week, into battle while his trainer's title rival Gordon Elliott relies on Outlander. Edwulf takes his chance for Joseph O'Brien, Noel Meade runs Road To Respect, while Henry de Bromhead's Sub Liuetenant and Colin Tizzard's Sizing Granite also line up. 13 runners go to post...

When looking at this race where do we start? We know that 10 of the last 15 Punchestown Gold Cup Winners were aged 7 or 8yo (67%) and 11 of the last 15 winners (73%) were Irish-trained and our advice is to factor these points into thought processes!

VERDICT: Because there is only one 8yo and one 7yo in the race and both Irish-trained and with good form to their name they MUST be the selections. We are not wagering but if we did our betting slip would show 1pt win BELLSHILL at 9/2 and 1/2pt win ROAD TO RESPECT at 11/4


Willie Mullins, trainer of Bellshill told us: "Bellshill has performed well on his last two starts, winning the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse before being beaten only a length when fourth in the Irish Grand National. If the National run hasn't taken too much out of him then he will have a big chance."


Noel Meade, trainer of Road To Respect said: "I'm very, very pleased with him. He's in great shape and I couldn't be happier with him. Everything has gone to plan since Cheltenham and there have been no hitches or hold-ups. There's nothing we can do about the ground. The better it is the more he likes it, but yielding to soft should be fine."


2018 Coral Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m120y


13/15: Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/15: Aged 8yo or younger
11/15: Irish-trained winners
10/15: Aged 7 or 8yo
.9/15: Had run in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
.8/15: Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
.8/15: Winning favourites
.8/15: Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out
.6/15: Won last time out
.3/15: Ridden by Barry Geraghty
.2/15: Trained by Paul Nicholls
.2/15: Trained by Willie Mullins
.2/15: Trained by Mouse Morris

Some more interesting facts include:

The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 6/1
7 of the last 13 favourites have won (54%)
8 of the last 10 Irish-trained favourites have won (80%)
Since 1999 only 2 Irish-trained winners hadn’t won at the course before (90%)
8 of the last 19 winners had run in that season’s John Durkan Memorial Chase (42%)

Latest Betting (Tuesday morning): 9/4 Road To Respect, 9/2 Bellshill, 6 Djakadam, 13/2 Killutagh Vic, 10 Edwulf, 12 Total Recall, 16 Outlander, 25 Alpha Des Obeaux, 40 Sub Lieutenant, 66 Sandymount Duke, Sizing Granite, 80 Sumos Novios, 100 Arctic Skipper.


  Today's Pacafi: click here


Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.


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