The Racing Horse offer more key trends ace at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas day. We already have the big race covered and nominated Masar as our Pacafi and that one is currently trading at 9/2 best price guaranteed. We now cover the Spring Lodge Stakes, Longholes Palace House Stakes and the Dunaden Jockey Club Stakes. Using the trends we offer our 1-2-3 for each race.
The first race looks a tough handicap to solve so our trends are desperately needed. With just one winning favourite in the last 13 it’s been a good race for the bookies but, with 11 of the last 13 winners returning 12/1 or shorter in the betting, it’s actually a race you generally don’t have to look too far down the betting market to find the winner. With 10 of the last 13 successful horses aged 4 or 5yo then this is a good age trend, while 11 of the last 13 also carried 9-0 or less in weight..
1.50 Newmarket: Spring Lodge Stakes (Class 2) 1m1f
13/13: Had won at least twice before
13/13: Had won over at least a mile before
11/13: Priced 12/1 or shorter
11/13: Carried 9st 0lbs or less in weight
11/13: Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
10/13: Aged 4 or 5yo
..9/13: Finished in the top 4 last time out
..9/13: Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
..8/13: Rated between 90 and 95
..7/13: Aged 4yo
..6/13: Having their first run of the season
..5/13: Irish bred
..5/13: Won last time out
..2/13: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
..1/13: Winning favourites
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1
The Racing Horse VERDICT: 1st: Oasis Charm 10/1 2nd: Dommersen 11/1 3rd: Brorocco 14/1
SPORTING LIFE PREVIEW: John Gosden’s pair, Tricorn and Dommersen, are interesting in this reverting to handicap company but past form suggests both are probably a few pounds too high at present. Sharja Bridge has only had four starts and could yet hold his own in decent company. He was only beaten a head on his handicap debut at Sandown on his final start last year and his first run behind Addeybb in June is starting to look a very smart effort. Oasis Charm won at Chelmsford last month but this will be the first time he’s encountered ground with some give. Cambridgeshire fifth Brorocco beat Banditry at Epsom around this time last year but usually needs a run but Examiner won over a mile here last month and the second has already franked the form so he should go well again, despite a 4lb rise. ANOTHER ECLIPSE has been gelded since last seen. He’s only won a Brighton maiden so far but there is definitely scope for further improvement this year and Silvestre De Sousa has got close to his minimum weight to take the ride.
Several of these ran in the race 12 months ago and last year's winning connections Elite Racing Club will be hoping Judicial will follow up. Not many 3yos run in this but those that do have a decent record.
2.20 Newmarket: Longholes Palace House Stakes (Group 3) 5f
14/15: Had won over 5f before
13/15: Won 3 or more times before
13/15: Had won a Listed or Group race before
12/15: Priced 8/1 or shorter
12/15: Had run at Newmarket before
12/15: Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/15: Placed favourites
10/15: Rated between 108 and 114
10/15: Aged 5yo or younger
..9/15: Came from the top 3 in the betting
..8/15: Won last time out
..6/15: Winning favourites
..5/15: Ran at Newmarket last time out
..2/15: Trained by Bryan Smart
Just one placed horse from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1
The Racing Horse VERDICT: 1st; Havana Grey 5/2 2nd: Encore D'Or 12/1 3rd: Mabs Cross 5/1
SPORTING LIFE PREVIEW: HAVANA GREY beat the smart Invincible Army, a winner at Ascot on Wednesday, in the Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood last summer. He was then second in the Group 1 Prix Morny and the Flying Childers at Doncaster so looks the one to beat if he’s trained on. Judicial is a speedy type who would be thereabouts on his best form and the filly Mabs Cross was only beaten a neck in a Listed race at Bath on her reappearance when chasing a five-timer. Alpha Delphini beat Ornate at Musselburgh in October and went close at the same track in March and Bob Cowell’s sprinters should never be underestimated - Encore d'Or is the pick of his pair today.
With only five runners in the race we think the finishers will finish in market order. This is a deeper race than Count Octave won on his return at Wolverhampton, but he did finish ahead of the selection in the St Leger last year and is respected with that recent outing under his belt but Defoe looks a Pacafi class.
2.55 Newmarket: Dunaden Jockey Club Staeks (Group 2) 1m4f.
15/15: Aged 4 or 5yo
12/15: Had won between 3-5 times in their career
12/15: Won over 1m4f before
12/15: Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/15: Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
11/15: Finished in the top 3 last time out
..9/15: Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
..9/15: Aged 4yo
..8/15: Rated 112 or higher
..8/15: Winning favourites
..7/15: Having their first run of the season
..7/15: Had won a Group race before
..6/15: Won last time out
..6/15: Aged 5yo
..4/15: Returned 7/4 in the betting
..4/15: Ran at Newbury last time out
..3/15: Ridden by Ryan Moore
..2/15: Won by trainer Mark Johnston
..2/15: Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
..2/15: Trained by Andre Fabre
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
The Racing Horse VERDICT: 1st: Defoe 1/2 2nd: Count Octave 6/1 3rd: Khalidi 10/1
SPORTING LIFE PREVIEW: DEFOE flopped in the St Leger on his final start last year, when behind Count Octave, but had looked a very progressive performer earlier, rattling up a four-timer. He never gave supporters a moment’s worry on his return to action at Newbury and looks well up taking this step up in grade in his stride. Red Verdon was tried over 2m at Lingfield on All-Weather Championships day but, though finishing close up, may not have quite got home. The drop in distance is in his favour and he holds Master The World on the form book but he’s not won on Turf in almost two years. Khalidi looks a bigger danger as he had smart form last year when with John Gosden and is better than he’s shown in two runs for new connections.
Today's Pacafi: click here
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.