Newmarket Trends: Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1)

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The Racing Horse offer more key trends and this time we look at 1000 Guineas Stakes. It is a Group 1 Flat horse race open to 3yo fillies and run on the Rowley Mile Course at Newmarket over a distance of a mile (1,609metres) and takes place on the Sunday following the 2000 Guineas Stakes. It is the second of Britain's five Classic races and the first of two restricted to fillies and will be run on the 6th May.

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Has Ryan Moore chosen the wrong filly?

Happily leads a four-strong Ballydoyle team with Ryan Moore jetting back from partnering Mendelssohn in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs to take the ride on last season's two-time Group 1 winner. We are not sure the rush will be worth it! In any case he might have chosen the wrong filly as we prefer I Can Fly. Aidan O'Brien said of her: "We were happy with I Can Fly's run at Leopardstown. She ran very well on ground that was too testing for her and she's come on nicely since. Stepping up to a mile on better ground should suit her."

Appleby to continue his tremendous form with work filly

We remind members that Soliloquy was supplemented for this on the back of her Nell Gwyn win here (7f, good) last month, sealing the race with a decisive turn of foot. Highly likely there's more to come after only 3 starts for this course winner and this is our selection. Charlie Appleby said: "Soliloquy is a work filly. She impressed us three weeks before the Nell Gwyn. Then she did what she did in the Nell Gwyn. We have asked serious questions of her since then."

Godolphin comments

Second foal; half-sister to 1m winner Musical Terms (RPR 78); dam 6.5f-1m winner (inc Australian Listed; 108), out of Australian 6f-7.5f winning half-sister to dam of GB 7f/Australian 7.5f Listed winner Scarf; shaped with bags of promise when second in Newmarket maiden in August 2017 and followed that up with cosy all-the-way win over a mile at Ascot in September; made all once again on 2018 return in the Nell Gwyn and is clearly very smart; handles ease underfoot.

 

3.35 Newmarket: 1000 Guineas Stakes Group 1 (1m)

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15/16: Placed in the top 3 last time out (94%)
12/16: Had won a Group race before (75%)
12/16: Had won between 2-3 times before (75%)
11/16: Won their previous race (69%)
10/16: Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less (63%)
..9/16: Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before (56%)
..9/16: Came from outside the top 3 in the betting (56%)
..9/16: Yet to win a race over a mile or further (56%)
..7/16: Returned a double-figure price (44%)
..7/16: Favourites unplaced (44%)
..7/16: Won on their seasonal reappearance (44%)
..7/16: Ran at Newmarket last time out (44%)
..7/16: Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before (44%)
..6/16: Irish-trained winners (38%)
..5/16: Previous Group One winners (31%)
..5/16: Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot (31%)
..4/16: Won by a US bred horse (25%)
..4/16: Won by the favourite (25%)
..3/16: French-trained winners (19%)
..3/16: Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks (19%)
..3/16: Ridden by Ryan Moore (19%)
..2/16: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (13%)
..2/16: Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia 2002, Minding 2016) (13%)


Other information:

Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
7 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 10/1

Owner Hamdam Al Maktoum has won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 3 times (2012, 2015, 2016)
Godolphin have won the race 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Aidan O’Brien has trained four winners, Virginia Waters (1995), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016) & Winter (2017)

 

The Racing Horse Verdict: 1st Soliloquy 13/2  2nd: I Can Fly 8/1  3rd: Laurens 9/1

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TIMEFORM VIEW

Aidan O'Brien has won this race 4 times and looks the trainer to focus on again. I CAN FLY has a similar profile to last year's winner Winter and is taken to improve past stablemate Happily. The Charlie Appleby pair Soliloquy, who has been supplemented on the back of her Nell Gwyn success, and Wild Illusion also look sure to have a big say in an open renewal.

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

REMEMBER!

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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