Chester Cup Trends

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offer more key trends and this time for the CHESTER CUP which has been moved from it’s original slot on Wednesday and will now be run on Friday 11th May 2018. This race is run over 2m2f and is the feature contest of the festival and it is a race with plenty of trends history to use. We dislike racing at Chester from a sports betting point of view though accept it is a great spectacle with 20 horses or more rattling around the tight Chester turns. It is a race for the bookies and we will not get involved.


Did you know? There has only been 4 winning Chester Cup winning favourites so it might be a good idea to look elsewhere.

The race has seen repeat winners three times since 1997
The Hills yard took the race in 1980, 1999, 2001 and 2009
Since 1975 all winners have been aged 8yo or younger
Since 1975 there have only been three winners aged 8yo
Since 1981 only 6 winners have carried more than 9st 2lbs to victory
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 13/1
4 of the last 8 winners came from NH yards
3 of the last 6 winners returned 10/1
Dr Marwan Koukash has owned 3 of the last 10 winners


3.35 Chester: Chester Cup Handicap (Class 2) 2m2f


15/16: Aged 7yo or younger (94%)
15/16: Winning distance – 2 lengths or less 994%)
13/16: Officially rated between 93-99 (81%)
12/16: Aged 5, 6 or 7yo (75%)
11/16: Carried 9st 2lbs or less (69%)
11/16: Had raced within the last 2 months (69%)
11/16: Finished unplaced last time out (69%)
11/16: Won from stall 7 or lower (69%)
10/16: Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting (63%)
10/16: Had won previously over at least 2m on the flat (63%)
..8/16: Favourites were unplaced (50%)
..8/16; Placed favourites (50%)
..7/16: Irish bred 3/16 – Had won at the track before (44%)
..3/16: Ran at Aintree over hurdles last time out (19%)
..3/16: Ran at Newmarket last time out (19%)
..3/16: Won by owner Dr Marwan Koukash (19%)
..2/16: Trained by Donald McCain (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Richard Fahey (13%)
..2/16: Won by the favourite (13%)
..2/16: Won their previous race (13%)



Other key trends to note are that 15 of the last 16 winners were aged 7yo or younger – with only the 2016 winner, No Heretic going against that trend, whilst we’ve seen just three horses aged 8yo (or older) take the race since 1975.


Do not be too worried if your fancy heads here off the back of a poor recent run as 11 of the last 16 winners were unplaced last time out, whilst in terms of weight the key stat it’s worth noting that 11 of the last 15 winners carried 9st 2lbs or less. 


Despite being run over 2m2f the draw plays a big part too – mainly due to Chester being one of the tightest of the flat tracks. Therefore, it is no real surprise that horses drawn low have the advantage, meaning they can save ground and get good early positions in the race, 11 of the last 16 winners came from stall 7 or less.


There has been a few attempts to filter the pretenders from the contenders but the truth is we have been unable to unravel the race. Every time we compare trends to form we have a different winner. For example the trends says look for a horse carrying less than 9st 2lbs - we believe on this occasion the winner will be carrying 9st 2lbs or more. Our token selection is a horse we met in Australia and today's top weight Nakeeta currently trading at 18/1. If we were forced to bet we would go place on this horse as he will be running on fast from the back - whether Callum Rodriguez can find a kind trip is another question. Trainer Iain Jardine told us: "He's on a career-high mark but top weight doesn't bother me. He ran an excellent race in the Melbourne Cup and rarely puts in a bad run. Things have been a bit slow with the weather and he's hanging on to his winter coat, but his work has been really good. He's not got the best draw but he's a hold-up horse and hopefully they'll go fast in front and he'll be passing a few at the end."


This marathon trip could unlock improvement in STARGAZER, who was progressive for Sir Michael Stoute in 2016 and has shown that his ability remains very much intact with a couple of solid efforts on the AW in March. Dubawi Fifty also has low mileage and is a big danger, along with the consistent Magic Circle. Had he been better drawn, Who Dares Wins would've been very high on the shortlist, too.


  Today's Pacafi: click here


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