Racing Trends for York

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offer more key trends and this time for the York Dante Festival Meeting (Wednesday 16th to Friday 18th May 2018). The Dante is run on Thursday and a race that has produced four Epsom Derby winners in the last 16 years but 10 in total. The first was St Paddy in 1960 and the most recent was Golden Horn in 2015.

We think we have the winner of the Musidora Stakes on Wednesday and one at a price for the Yorkshire Cup on Friday.

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2.20 York: SkyBet First Race Special Jorvik Handicap (Class 2) 1m4f.

14/14: Had won over at least 1m2f before (100%)
13/14: Aged 4 or 5yo (93%)
11/14: Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting (79%)
11/14: Placed in the top 3 last time out (79%)
10/14: Had raced within the last 6 weeks (71%)
10/14: Rated between 80 and 93 (71%)
10/14: Carried 9st 1lbs or less in weight (71%)
..9/14: Had won at least 3 times before (64%)
..9/14: Winners from stall 6 or higher (64%)
..9/14: Had won over 1m4f before (64%)
..8/14: Had run at York before (57%)
..7/14: Aged 5yo (50%)
..6/14: Unplaced last time out (43%)
..5/14: Winning favourites (36%)
..4/14: Won last time out (29%)
..0/14: Winners from stall 1 (0%)

The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 13/2

Timeform View

HAMADA highlighted why connections have been so patient when making light of a 19-month absence at Wolverhampton recently, notably travelling well and ultimately scoring readily. A 5 lb higher mark looks fair on that evidence and he can continue the good work back on turf. This is a competitive race of its type though, with Now Children and Crowned Eagle just 2 potential dangers.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: HAMADA 5/2  2nd: TUFF ROCK 8/1  3rd: NOW CHILDREN 11/2

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2.55 York: Infinity Tyres Stakes Handicap (Class 2) 6f

15/16: Aged 6yo or younger (94%)
14/16: Drawn in stall 6 or higher (88%)
13/16: Had run at York before (5 won at the track before) (81%)
12/16: Had won over this trip before (75%)
11/16: Carried 8st 12lbs or more (69%)
..9/16: Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting (56%)
..9/16: Finished unplaced last time out (56%)
..8/16: Won by 4yo (50%)
..7/16: Returned 6/1 or 7/1 (44%)
..4/16: Ran at Newmarket last time out (25%)
..4/16: Won their previous race (25%)
..1/16: Winning outright favourite (6%)


Trainer Michael Easterby won the race in 2011 & 2014
Trainer David O’Meara won the race in 2018 and 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

Timeform View

ORION'S BOW is well treated on his best efforts and his promising reappearance third at Pontefract suggests a return to his peak form may not be too far away. Foolaad had the selection in behind when making it 8 wins in his last 10 starts at Pontefract and is likely to give another good account, while Richard Fahey holds a strong hand courtesy of Gin In The Inn, George Bowen and Private Matter.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: FLYING PURSUIT 20/1  2nd: FINAL VENTURE 12/1  3rd: GOLDEN APOLLO 14/1

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3.30 York: Duke Of York Clipper Logistics Stakes (Group 2) 6f

15/16: Came from stall 9 or lower (94%)
14/16: Previous Listed or Group Three winners (88%)
14/16: Had won over 6f before (88%)
12/16: Had run at York before (75%)
11/16: Came from stall 7 or lower (69%)
12/16: Had a previous race that season (75%)
11/16: Won by either a 4 or 5yo (69%)
10/16: Returned a double-figure price in the betting (63%)
..8/16: Unplaced last time out (50%)
..6/16: Ran at Newmarket last time out (38%)
..5/16: Won by the favourite (31%)
..4/16: Won their last race (25%)
..4/16: Had won a Group One race previously in their career (25%)

Tasleet won the race in 2017
Magical Memory won the race in 2016 and was second in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 14/1

Timeform View

HARRY ANGEL was ultra impressive when landing back-to-back Group 1 events last term, and whilst not at his very best at Ascot on his final start, he is fancied to concede weight all round and make a winning return. Abernant-winner Brando and last year's winner Tasleet can do battle for the forecast spot.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1st: HARRY ANGEL 4/5  2nd: BRANDO 9/2  3rd: SIR DANCEALOT 10/1

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4.05 York: Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) 1m2f

15/16: Had won a race before (94%)
14/16: Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting (88%)
12/16: Came from stalls 1-4 (inc) (75%)
12/16: Had a previous run that season (75%)
12/16: Finished 4th or better last time (75%)
10/16: Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks (63%)
..8/16: Won by the favourite (50%)
..8/16: Won their previous race (50%)
..5/16: Previous distance winners over 1m2f (31%)
..5/16: Trained by John Gosden (5 of the last 7) (31%)
..4/16: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (last 3) (25%)
..3/16: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (19%)
..2/16: Ridden by William Buick (13%)
..1/16: Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Sariska 2009) (6%)
..0/16: Had run at York before (0%)


10 of the last 12 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/2
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won the race

Timeform View

Impressive debut winner HIGHGARDEN had failed to meet expectations when third at Sandown on her return but there was still plenty of promise in her run, taking a while to get going but strong by the finish, and she's taken to turn the tables with Give And Take. Ceilidhs Dream did well to overcome a slow start when edging out a well-touted newcomer at Newmarket and is another to consider.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: HIGHGARDEN 5/2  2nd: GIVE AND TAKE 4/1  3rd: CEILIDHS DREAM 3/1

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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